Visit Bubbleteams.com to view each conference tournament bracket and check out the other conference tournament previews.
There were few upsets and surprises in the first day of conference tournament action.
Horizon:
The home teams held court as Loyola (Chicago), Illinois-Chicago and Detroit all advanced to the conference quarterfinals.
FIRST ROUND
At higher seeds
Tuesday, Feb. 28
Game 1: No. 6 Illinois-Chicago, No. 7 Wright State, 77-64
Game 2: No. 5 Detroit, No. 8 Cleveland State, 92-58
Game 3: No. 4 Loyola-Chi., No. 9 Youngstown State, 76-61
QUARTERFINALS
At The Klotsche Center
Milwaukee, Wis.
Friday, March 3
Game 4: No. 3 Wisconsin-Green Bay vs. No. 6 Illinois-Chicago, 4:30 p.m.
Game 5: No. 4 Loyola-Chi vs. No. 5 Detroit , 7 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 4
Game 6: No. 2 Butler vs. Game 4 winner, 4:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
Game 7: No. 1 Wisconsin-Milwaukee vs. Game 5 winner, 7 p.m. (ESPNU)
CHAMPIONSHIP
At higher seed
Tuesday, March 7Game 8: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 winner, 9 p.m. (ESPN)
Big South:
Two higher seeds (Winthrop and Coastal Carolina) advanced while two lower seeds (Charleston Southern and High Point) pulled of upsets on the road.
FIRST ROUND
At higher seeds
Tuesday, Feb 28
Game 1: No. 1 Winthrop 93, No. 8 Liberty 52
Game 2: No. 5 High Point 87, No. 4 Radford 84
Game 3: No. 2 Coastal Carolina 78, No. 7 UNC Asheville 62
Game 4: No. 6 Charleston Southern 97, No. 3 Birmingham-Southern 76
SEMIFINALS
At Winthrop Coliseum
Rock Hill, S.C.
Thursday, March 2
Game 5: No. 1 Winthrop vs. No. 5 High Point
Game 6: No. 2 Coastal Carolina vs. No. 6 Charleston Southern
At higher seed
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 4
Game 7: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner
Ohio Valley:
All four top seed advanced to the semifinal round on Friday in Nashville, Tennessee.
FIRST ROUND
At higher seeds
Tuesday, Feb. 28
Game 1: No. 1 Murray State 65, No. 8 UT-Martin 52
Game 2: No. 4 Jacksonville St. 86, No. 5 Eastern Kentucky 59
Game 3: No. 2 Samford 78, No. 7 Tennessee State 67
Game 4: No. 3 Tennessee Tech 78, No. 6 Austin Peay 74
SEMIFINALS
At The Gaylord Entertainment Center
Nashville, Tenn.
Friday, March 3
Game 5: No. 1 Murray State vs. No. 4 Jacksonville St., 7 p.m. (ESPNU)
Game 6: No. 2 Samford vs. No. 3 Tennessee Tech, 9:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 5
Game 7: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
Updated conference tournament brackets, projections and reviews will be available throughout the week.
Tuesday, February 28, 2006
Conference Tournament Previews-(Southern, MVC, A-Sun, Northeast, Big South, Horizon, OVC)
We have been asked to post the conference tournament previews from our other website here.
Visit Bubbleteams.com to view each conference tournament bracket and check out the other conference tournament previews.
Southern Conference:
At North Charleston Coliseum
North Charleston, S.C.
FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 2
Game 1: No. 8 Appalachian St. vs. No. 9 Wofford, 3;30 p.m.
Game 2: No. 7 Western Carolina vs. No. 10 UNC Greensboro, 6 p.m.
Game 3: No. 6 Furman vs. No. 11 The Citadel, 8:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Friday, March 3
Game 4: No. 1 Georgia Southern vs. Game 1 winner, 12 p.m.
Game 5: No. 4 College of Charleston vs. No. 5 Chattanooga, 2:30 p.m.
Game 6: No. 2 Elon vs. Game 2 winner, 6 p.m.
Game 7: No. 3 Davidson vs. Game 3 winner, 8:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 4
Game 8: Game 4 winner vs. Game 5 winner, 12 p.m.
Game 9: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 winner, 2:30 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, March 5
Game 10: Game 8 winner vs. Game 9 winner, 2 p.m. (ESPN2)
Recap: The Southern Conference experienced a slight downturn this season, exemplified by the first place team (and tournament #2 seed) Elon Phoenix. The Phoenix won the Northern Division of the Southern Conference with a 10-4 conference record. Unfortunately, the Phoenix did not find as much success in their non-conference games, finishing 14-13 overall. In fact, the only Division 1 non-conference team Elon defeated was Clemson. Much greater fortune was found in the South Division, where the Georgia Southern Eagles finished 11-4, 20-8 overall; earning the Eagles a 1 seed in the conference tournament. The Eagles were the only Southern Conference team to lose less than ten games, marking a poor overall season for Southern teams.
Favorite: Georgia Southern is a slight favorite to win the conference tournament, despite having to face either Wofford or Appalachian State, each winners against the Eagles during the regular season. Should Georgia Southern advance past their quarterfinal round game, they would have to face either Chattanooga, winners of eight of their last 11 games and defending conference champions, or host team College of Charleston. The road seems to be a difficult one for Georgia Southern to claim the conference crown this season. Instead, we will go with Davidson as this year's tournament favorite. Despite a sub-par season, the Wildcats have prepared themselves for this year's tournament with a solid non-conference schedule and a decent showing in the conference standings. Davidson is looking to erase the bad memories of last seasons disappointing semifinal loss, after posting a perfect 16-0 conference record.
Darkhorse: College of Charleston would be a solid choice as tournament darkhorse, given the historic difficulty of having to play in Charleston Coliseum. Unfortunately, this season, the Cougars seemed to lack some bite when facing opponents in their own arena, losing to Georgia Southern and Davidson at home. Instead, we will go way off the board and jump on the Wofford Terriers as our darkhorse for the Southern Conference Tournament. The Terriers won at Appalachian State and split with Georgia Southern this season (losing by 16 on the road and winning by 16 at home). The only drawback to picking the Terriers is the prospect of having to win four games in four days, but that's why they call teams like Wofford a darkhorse!
Atlantic Sun:
At Memorial Center
Johnson City, Tenn.
QUARTERFINALS
Thursday, March 2
Game 1: No. 1 Lipscomb vs. No. 8 Mercer, 1 p.m.
Game 2: No. 4 Gardner-Webb vs. No. 5 East Tennessee State, 3:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 2 Belmont vs. No. 7 Campbell, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 3 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 6 Stetson, 9:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Friday, March 3
Game 5: Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner, 7 p.m.
Game 6: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner, 9:30 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 4
Game 7: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 2 p.m. (ESPN2)
Recap: Belmont and Lipscomb shared the A-Sun regular season title with identical 15-5 conference records. The Belmont Bruins won nine of their last 10 games to catch the Lipscomb Bisons. The Atlantic Sun experienced a resurgence and rejuvenation this season, as two provisional Division 1 members, Kennesaw and North Florida, joined he league. Each team played a full league schedule and Kennesaw would have qualified for a 6 seed in the conference tournament if not for them being ineligible for postseason play.
Favorite: It would be a challenge to differentiate between either regular season champion as a favorite. Belmont is one of the hottest teams in the league, winning nine of their last ten games. Lipscomb has the tougher draw, having to face either Gardner-Webb, the only team to defeat Belmont in their last ten games, or the East Tennessee State Buccaneers-the host team for the conference tournament. The Gardner-Webb Bulldogs, winners of ten of their last 12 games, overcame a slow start to the conference race to finish in fourth place, just a game ahead of the Buccaneers.
Darkhorse: East Tennessee State would hardly be considered a darkhorse, given that they are the host team this year for the conference tournament. Unfortunately, a late season four game losing streak dropped the Bucs down to fifth place; leaving the prospect of having to defeat Gardner-Webb and possibly Lipscomb, both teams they lost to at home during the regular season. The best choice for a possible darkhorse is the Stetson Hatters. Stetson enters the conference tourney having won eight games in a row and eleven of their last 12. The Hatters upset Lipscomb, Gardner-Webb and East Tennessee State; losing only to potential second round opponent Belmont. The Hatters are playing their best ball of the season right now and they seem to be on a roll that might carry them all the way to the NCAA Tournament.
Missouri Valley Conference:
At Savvis Center
St. Louis, Mo.
FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 2
Game 1: No. 8 Drake vs. No. 9 Indiana State, 7 p.m.
Game 2: No. 7 Evansville vs. No. 10 Illinois State, 9:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Friday, March 3
Game 3: No. 1 Wichita State vs. Game 1 winner, 1 p.m.
Game 4: No. 4 Creighton vs. No. 5 Bradley, 3:30 p.m.
Game 5: No. 2 Southern Illinois vs. Game 2 winner, 7 p.m.
Game 6: No. 3 Missouri State vs. No. 6 Northern Iowa, 9:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 4
Game 7: Winners of Games 3 and 4, 2:30 p.m.
Game 8: Winners of Games 5 and 6, 5 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, March 5
Game 9: Winners of Games 7 and 8, 2 p.m.
Recap: The Missouri Valley Conference has been the topic of many a discussion this season in college basketball. The MVC has six teams that are vying for at-large tournament bids, making for what should be a fantastic conference tournament. Northern Iowa was the league leader until a late season four game losing streak dropped the Panthers from first place to sixth place. The Bradley Braves turned around their midseason misfortune by winning nine of their last 11 games and finishing in a tie for fifth place. The Creighton Blue Jays played solid basketball all season, finishing 12-6 in conference and 12-6 overall. Southern Illinois turned around their early season difficulties with an eleven game winning streak. Amazingly, despite losing four of their last seven conference games, the Salukis finished in a tie for second place just two games behind regular season champion Wichita State. The Shockers dominated the regular season of the Missouri Valley Conference finishing 14-4. Considering the depth of this season's league and the number of potential NCAA Tournament teams, Wichita State has completed as fine of a season as any in recent MVC memory.
Favorite: Wichita State is a slight favorite over the remainder of the MVC field. Given the strength and consistency of the Shockers' play this season, it would be foolhardy to not consider them a favorite for the MVC Tournament title. However, one team left unmentioned has the best draw and possibly the best chance to make it all the way to the title game and claim an elusive NCAA Tournament berth. Missouri State has won seven of their last eight league games, finishing in a tie for second place and earning the 3 seed in the conference tournament. The Bears play the slumping Northern Iowa Panthers in the first round. Hardly an east foe, but given the Panthers' troubles lately, one of the more advantageous matchups of the first round. Should Missouri State get past Northern Iowa, they would face Southern Illinois in the semifinals. Once again the Bears would be facing a team just coming out of a losing streak. Given the Bears' recent success, we are confident that they just might have enough muscle to make it to the conference finals, yet again, where maybe this season, they can finally cut down the nets.
Darkhorse: Indiana State had one of the most unusual starts to any season in almost 20 years of college basketball. The Sycamores started the 2005 season with 8 straight wins, including an upset of the Indiana Hoosiers. A loss to Wichita State in their second Missouri Valley Conference game started what would become an 11 game losing streak. Indiana State had dug themselves into a hole and started the month of February with a 1-10 conference record. In what might be the most amazing moment of the Sycamores season, Indiana State ended their 11 game losing streak and simultaneously ended Southern Illinois' 33 game home winning streak (the nation's longest streak at the time). The Sycamores rebounded to win three of their next four games (including wins against Northern Iowa and Bradley) and finish ninth in the Missouri Valley. The Sycamores seemed to find some of the mojo from their early season success and we think that might translate into a few wins in the MVC Tournament. Indiana State does face a Drake team that defeated the Sycamores twice in the regular season. However, since their last win against Indiana State, Drake has lost 10 of their last 11 games and appears to mailing in the rest of this season. Should the Sycamores recapture the magic that they had to start the season they might just be lucky enough to bookend their 2005-06 campaign with a pair of winning streaks, except this one would carry them into the NCAA Tournament.
Northeast Conference:
Each game played at higher seed
FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 2
Game 1: No. 1 Fairleigh Dickinson vs. No. 8 Quinnipiac, 7 p.m.
Game 2: No. 2 Central Connecticut vs. No. 7 Sacred Heart, 7 p.m.
Game 3: No. 3 Monmouth vs. No. 6 LIU-Brooklyn, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 4 Mount Saint Mary's vs. No. 5 Robert Morris, 7 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Sunday, March 5
Game 5: Highest seed vs. lowest seed
Game 6: Second-highest seed vs. second-lowest seed
CHAMPIONSHIP
Wednesday, March 8
Game 7: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Recap: Fairleigh Dickinson was 3-2 in conference just five games into the Northeast Conference season and appeared to be stuck in neutral as the month of January pressed on. Suddenly the Knights caught fire and emerged as the best team in the conference, claiming the crown after winning 11 of their last 13 conference games. FDU even went on the road and won at Wisconsin-Green Bay on Bracket Buster Saturday. The Knights might have shared the league title with Central Connecticut State had the Blue Devils not lost three straight road games at the start of February. Wrapped around those three losses were separate five and six game winning streaks. Monmouth overcame a 1-7 start to their season to finish 11-5 in league play and in sole possession of third place. The Hawks never won more than three games in a row all season, yet won five road games in Northeast play.
Favorite: Fairleigh Dickinson and Central Connecticut State have been playing the best basketball since the start of the 2006 and must both be considered favorites to claim the Northeast Conference Tournament crown. While tournament favorites and regular season champions have fared well in the conference tournament, Fairleigh Dickinson must be careful to avoid the fate of last years #1 seed Monmouth, which lost in the semifinals at home to #6 seed Wagner.
Darkhorse: Since the Northeast Conference reseeds after each round (with the lowest remaining seed playing at the home gym of the highest remaining seed), finding a darkhorse in past seasons has proven difficult. We will stay close to the vest for our darkhorse this season and jump on the bandwagon of the Monmouth Hawks. The Hawks are the only team to have defeated Central Connecticut State twice this season. The Hawks also own an overtime win against Fairleigh Dickinson, ending the Knights' 11 game winning streak back on February 20. We are looking for Monmouth to avenge last season's disappointing finish and reclaim their spot in the Big Dance.
Big South:
FIRST ROUND
Each game played at higher seed
Tuesday, Feb 28
Game 1: No. 1 Winthrop vs. No. 8 Liberty, 7:30 p.m.
Game 2: No. 4 Radford vs. No. 5 High Point, 7 p.m.
Game 3: No. 2 Coastal Carolina vs. No. 7 UNC Asheville 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 3 Birmingham-Southern vs. No. 6 Charleston Southern, 8 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
At Winthrop ColiseumRock Hill, S.C.
Thursday, March 2
Game 5: Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner
Game 6: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner
CHAMPIONSHIP
Game played at higher seed
Saturday, March 4
Game 7: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner
Recap: The start of the Big South Conference schedule had many pundits predicting the Winthrop Eagles would easily win the conference race (while more than a few projected the Eagles might even finish undefeated by season's end). In the end the Eagles did emerge on top of the conference standings, although not after a few surprises and a few shocking losses. Three teams (Winthrop, Birmingham Southern and Coastal Carolina) finished the conference schedule with 12 wins or more; a first in Big South Conference play. The conference also experienced some benefit from several notable upsets (highlighted by Winthrop's win at Marquette on November 19th). The conference finished in the top 20 RPI for the first time in the brief history of the Big South.
Favorite: The Winthrop Eagles are a tenuous favorite. bolstered by their having the benefit of playing home games through the conference finals. The Eagles did stumble at home once this season, losing to Coastal Carolina. The Eagles were 12-1 at home this season and are 28-1 at home since the start of the 2004-05 season. In addition, the Eagles closest margin of victory in their seven conference home wins was never less than 16 points. Their stellar home record and solid play for the majority of the 2005-06 campaign places Winthrop ahead of a very strong pack of contenders. The other two teams with strong chances to take the Big South title are the Birmingham Southern Panthers and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. The Panthers reeled of nine straight victories from early January through early February to take a brief lead in the Big South Conference race. The Chanticleers enter the conference tournament as the hottest team in the Big South, riding a ten game winning streak. Coastal Carolina entered their road game at Winthrop with a record of 4-9 (2-4 in conference). Coastal Carolina emerged with an improbable victory and a season sweep of Winthrop, after defeating the Eagles at home eleven days later. In addition, the Chanticleers have only won by less than seven points once during their winning streak.
Darkhorse: It would be hard to call Coastal Carolina a darkhorse, given their winning streak and their success against Winthrop this season. Yet, there is no team playing as well right now in the Big South as Coastal Carolina. Given Winthrop's dominance at home the past two seasons, it would appear the only team with the resume to challenge the Eagles is the Chanticleers.
Horizon League:
FIRST ROUND
Games played at higher seed
Tuesday, Feb. 28
Game 1: No. 6 Illinois-Chicago vs. No. 7 Wright State, 7 p.m.
Game 2: No. 5 Detroit vs. No. 8 Cleveland State, 7 p.m.
Game 3: No. 4 Loyola-Chi. vs. No. 9 Youngstown State, 8 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
At The Klotsche Center
Milwaukee, Wis.
Friday, March 3
Game 4: No. 3 Wisconsin-Green Bay vs. Game 1 winner, 4:30 p.m.
Game 5: Game 2 winner vs. Game 3 winner, 7 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 4
Game 6: No. 2 Butler vs. Game 4 winner, 4:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
Game 7: No. 1 Wisconsin-Milwaukee vs. Game 5 winner, 7 p.m. (ESPNU)
CHAMPIONSHIP
Game played at higher seed
Tuesday, March 7
Game 8: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 winner, 9 p.m. (ESPN)
Recap: Wisconsin-Milwaukee struggled to finish the conference season in first places, losing three of their last six conference games. The Panthers did finish on top of the league, but only after Detroit upset Butler on the last Saturday of league play.
Favorite: Wisconsin-Milwaukee is a slight favorite because the tournament is played on their home court and the Panthers earned a pass to the league semifinals based on their second place finish. In addition, all four teams that defeated UWM are in the lower half of the bracket. UWM will face a serious challenge from the Butler Bulldogs. Butler 9-3 in their last 12 games, split their two regular season games with the Panthers.
Darkhorse: Any darkhorse is likely to come from the lower half of the bracket of the conference tournament. Wisconsin-Green Bay earned the #3 seed on the basis of a tiebreaker of five teams, all with 8-8 records. Illinois-Chicago swept Wright State, defeated UWM and Wisconsin-Green Bay this season. Unfortunately, the Flames were swept by Butler during the conference season. If Wright State can get by Illinois-Chicago, the Raiders face three potential opponents which they have played tough all season.
Ohio Valley:
FIRST ROUND
Game played at higher seed
Tuesday, Feb. 28
Game 1: No. 1 Murray State vs. No. 8 UT-Martin, 8 p.m.
Game 2: No. 4 Jacksonville St. vs. No. 5 Eastern Kentucky, 8 p.m.
Game 3: No. 2 Samford vs. No. 7 Tennessee State, 8:30 p.m.
Game 4: No. 3 Tennessee Tech vs. No. 6 Austin Peay, 8:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
At The Gaylord Entertainment Center
Nashville, Tenn.
Friday, March 3
Game 5: Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner, 7 p.m. (ESPNU)
Game 6: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner, 9:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 5
Game 7: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
Recap: The Ohio Valley Conference boasted seven teams with winning conference records this season. The Samford Bulldogs experienced a resurgence, finishing with 14 conference wins and an overall record of 16-10. Murray State once again was the class of the league, finishing 17-3 in conference and 20-6 overall. Tennessee-Martin is the only conference team to enter the tournament with a losing record. The Ohio valley Conference is one of the few NCAA conferences that has its members play every other conference member twice. The tight constraints on scheduling typically allow OVC teams the opportunity to schedule very few non-conference games.
Favorite: Murray State is an obvious favorite, having posted just three losses in 20 conference games. The only two teams in the conference tournament to defeat the Racers are in the lower half of the bracket, giving Murray State a good chance to at least make it to the conference finals. Samford finished in second place, just ahead of Tennessee Tech. Both teams struggled as the conference schedule came to a close. The Bulldogs have lost four of their last six games, while the Eagles have dropped six of their last ten games.
Darkhorse: Austin Peay will be looking to repeat last year's tournament success (when they posted two straight upsets on their way to a championship game loss to Eastern Kentucky). The Governors have six losses of ten points or less during the conference schedule. Once again, Austin Peay faces the challenge of having to win at Tennessee Tech in the conference opener and then possibly face Samford in the conference semifinals.
We will post each conference tournament preview and schedule as the calendar progresses towards Championip Week.
Visit Bubbleteams.com to view each conference tournament bracket and check out the other conference tournament previews.
Southern Conference:
At North Charleston Coliseum
North Charleston, S.C.
FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 2
Game 1: No. 8 Appalachian St. vs. No. 9 Wofford, 3;30 p.m.
Game 2: No. 7 Western Carolina vs. No. 10 UNC Greensboro, 6 p.m.
Game 3: No. 6 Furman vs. No. 11 The Citadel, 8:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Friday, March 3
Game 4: No. 1 Georgia Southern vs. Game 1 winner, 12 p.m.
Game 5: No. 4 College of Charleston vs. No. 5 Chattanooga, 2:30 p.m.
Game 6: No. 2 Elon vs. Game 2 winner, 6 p.m.
Game 7: No. 3 Davidson vs. Game 3 winner, 8:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 4
Game 8: Game 4 winner vs. Game 5 winner, 12 p.m.
Game 9: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 winner, 2:30 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, March 5
Game 10: Game 8 winner vs. Game 9 winner, 2 p.m. (ESPN2)
Recap: The Southern Conference experienced a slight downturn this season, exemplified by the first place team (and tournament #2 seed) Elon Phoenix. The Phoenix won the Northern Division of the Southern Conference with a 10-4 conference record. Unfortunately, the Phoenix did not find as much success in their non-conference games, finishing 14-13 overall. In fact, the only Division 1 non-conference team Elon defeated was Clemson. Much greater fortune was found in the South Division, where the Georgia Southern Eagles finished 11-4, 20-8 overall; earning the Eagles a 1 seed in the conference tournament. The Eagles were the only Southern Conference team to lose less than ten games, marking a poor overall season for Southern teams.
Favorite: Georgia Southern is a slight favorite to win the conference tournament, despite having to face either Wofford or Appalachian State, each winners against the Eagles during the regular season. Should Georgia Southern advance past their quarterfinal round game, they would have to face either Chattanooga, winners of eight of their last 11 games and defending conference champions, or host team College of Charleston. The road seems to be a difficult one for Georgia Southern to claim the conference crown this season. Instead, we will go with Davidson as this year's tournament favorite. Despite a sub-par season, the Wildcats have prepared themselves for this year's tournament with a solid non-conference schedule and a decent showing in the conference standings. Davidson is looking to erase the bad memories of last seasons disappointing semifinal loss, after posting a perfect 16-0 conference record.
Darkhorse: College of Charleston would be a solid choice as tournament darkhorse, given the historic difficulty of having to play in Charleston Coliseum. Unfortunately, this season, the Cougars seemed to lack some bite when facing opponents in their own arena, losing to Georgia Southern and Davidson at home. Instead, we will go way off the board and jump on the Wofford Terriers as our darkhorse for the Southern Conference Tournament. The Terriers won at Appalachian State and split with Georgia Southern this season (losing by 16 on the road and winning by 16 at home). The only drawback to picking the Terriers is the prospect of having to win four games in four days, but that's why they call teams like Wofford a darkhorse!
Atlantic Sun:
At Memorial Center
Johnson City, Tenn.
QUARTERFINALS
Thursday, March 2
Game 1: No. 1 Lipscomb vs. No. 8 Mercer, 1 p.m.
Game 2: No. 4 Gardner-Webb vs. No. 5 East Tennessee State, 3:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 2 Belmont vs. No. 7 Campbell, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 3 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 6 Stetson, 9:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Friday, March 3
Game 5: Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner, 7 p.m.
Game 6: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner, 9:30 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 4
Game 7: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 2 p.m. (ESPN2)
Recap: Belmont and Lipscomb shared the A-Sun regular season title with identical 15-5 conference records. The Belmont Bruins won nine of their last 10 games to catch the Lipscomb Bisons. The Atlantic Sun experienced a resurgence and rejuvenation this season, as two provisional Division 1 members, Kennesaw and North Florida, joined he league. Each team played a full league schedule and Kennesaw would have qualified for a 6 seed in the conference tournament if not for them being ineligible for postseason play.
Favorite: It would be a challenge to differentiate between either regular season champion as a favorite. Belmont is one of the hottest teams in the league, winning nine of their last ten games. Lipscomb has the tougher draw, having to face either Gardner-Webb, the only team to defeat Belmont in their last ten games, or the East Tennessee State Buccaneers-the host team for the conference tournament. The Gardner-Webb Bulldogs, winners of ten of their last 12 games, overcame a slow start to the conference race to finish in fourth place, just a game ahead of the Buccaneers.
Darkhorse: East Tennessee State would hardly be considered a darkhorse, given that they are the host team this year for the conference tournament. Unfortunately, a late season four game losing streak dropped the Bucs down to fifth place; leaving the prospect of having to defeat Gardner-Webb and possibly Lipscomb, both teams they lost to at home during the regular season. The best choice for a possible darkhorse is the Stetson Hatters. Stetson enters the conference tourney having won eight games in a row and eleven of their last 12. The Hatters upset Lipscomb, Gardner-Webb and East Tennessee State; losing only to potential second round opponent Belmont. The Hatters are playing their best ball of the season right now and they seem to be on a roll that might carry them all the way to the NCAA Tournament.
Missouri Valley Conference:
At Savvis Center
St. Louis, Mo.
FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 2
Game 1: No. 8 Drake vs. No. 9 Indiana State, 7 p.m.
Game 2: No. 7 Evansville vs. No. 10 Illinois State, 9:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Friday, March 3
Game 3: No. 1 Wichita State vs. Game 1 winner, 1 p.m.
Game 4: No. 4 Creighton vs. No. 5 Bradley, 3:30 p.m.
Game 5: No. 2 Southern Illinois vs. Game 2 winner, 7 p.m.
Game 6: No. 3 Missouri State vs. No. 6 Northern Iowa, 9:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 4
Game 7: Winners of Games 3 and 4, 2:30 p.m.
Game 8: Winners of Games 5 and 6, 5 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, March 5
Game 9: Winners of Games 7 and 8, 2 p.m.
Recap: The Missouri Valley Conference has been the topic of many a discussion this season in college basketball. The MVC has six teams that are vying for at-large tournament bids, making for what should be a fantastic conference tournament. Northern Iowa was the league leader until a late season four game losing streak dropped the Panthers from first place to sixth place. The Bradley Braves turned around their midseason misfortune by winning nine of their last 11 games and finishing in a tie for fifth place. The Creighton Blue Jays played solid basketball all season, finishing 12-6 in conference and 12-6 overall. Southern Illinois turned around their early season difficulties with an eleven game winning streak. Amazingly, despite losing four of their last seven conference games, the Salukis finished in a tie for second place just two games behind regular season champion Wichita State. The Shockers dominated the regular season of the Missouri Valley Conference finishing 14-4. Considering the depth of this season's league and the number of potential NCAA Tournament teams, Wichita State has completed as fine of a season as any in recent MVC memory.
Favorite: Wichita State is a slight favorite over the remainder of the MVC field. Given the strength and consistency of the Shockers' play this season, it would be foolhardy to not consider them a favorite for the MVC Tournament title. However, one team left unmentioned has the best draw and possibly the best chance to make it all the way to the title game and claim an elusive NCAA Tournament berth. Missouri State has won seven of their last eight league games, finishing in a tie for second place and earning the 3 seed in the conference tournament. The Bears play the slumping Northern Iowa Panthers in the first round. Hardly an east foe, but given the Panthers' troubles lately, one of the more advantageous matchups of the first round. Should Missouri State get past Northern Iowa, they would face Southern Illinois in the semifinals. Once again the Bears would be facing a team just coming out of a losing streak. Given the Bears' recent success, we are confident that they just might have enough muscle to make it to the conference finals, yet again, where maybe this season, they can finally cut down the nets.
Darkhorse: Indiana State had one of the most unusual starts to any season in almost 20 years of college basketball. The Sycamores started the 2005 season with 8 straight wins, including an upset of the Indiana Hoosiers. A loss to Wichita State in their second Missouri Valley Conference game started what would become an 11 game losing streak. Indiana State had dug themselves into a hole and started the month of February with a 1-10 conference record. In what might be the most amazing moment of the Sycamores season, Indiana State ended their 11 game losing streak and simultaneously ended Southern Illinois' 33 game home winning streak (the nation's longest streak at the time). The Sycamores rebounded to win three of their next four games (including wins against Northern Iowa and Bradley) and finish ninth in the Missouri Valley. The Sycamores seemed to find some of the mojo from their early season success and we think that might translate into a few wins in the MVC Tournament. Indiana State does face a Drake team that defeated the Sycamores twice in the regular season. However, since their last win against Indiana State, Drake has lost 10 of their last 11 games and appears to mailing in the rest of this season. Should the Sycamores recapture the magic that they had to start the season they might just be lucky enough to bookend their 2005-06 campaign with a pair of winning streaks, except this one would carry them into the NCAA Tournament.
Northeast Conference:
Each game played at higher seed
FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 2
Game 1: No. 1 Fairleigh Dickinson vs. No. 8 Quinnipiac, 7 p.m.
Game 2: No. 2 Central Connecticut vs. No. 7 Sacred Heart, 7 p.m.
Game 3: No. 3 Monmouth vs. No. 6 LIU-Brooklyn, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 4 Mount Saint Mary's vs. No. 5 Robert Morris, 7 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Sunday, March 5
Game 5: Highest seed vs. lowest seed
Game 6: Second-highest seed vs. second-lowest seed
CHAMPIONSHIP
Wednesday, March 8
Game 7: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Recap: Fairleigh Dickinson was 3-2 in conference just five games into the Northeast Conference season and appeared to be stuck in neutral as the month of January pressed on. Suddenly the Knights caught fire and emerged as the best team in the conference, claiming the crown after winning 11 of their last 13 conference games. FDU even went on the road and won at Wisconsin-Green Bay on Bracket Buster Saturday. The Knights might have shared the league title with Central Connecticut State had the Blue Devils not lost three straight road games at the start of February. Wrapped around those three losses were separate five and six game winning streaks. Monmouth overcame a 1-7 start to their season to finish 11-5 in league play and in sole possession of third place. The Hawks never won more than three games in a row all season, yet won five road games in Northeast play.
Favorite: Fairleigh Dickinson and Central Connecticut State have been playing the best basketball since the start of the 2006 and must both be considered favorites to claim the Northeast Conference Tournament crown. While tournament favorites and regular season champions have fared well in the conference tournament, Fairleigh Dickinson must be careful to avoid the fate of last years #1 seed Monmouth, which lost in the semifinals at home to #6 seed Wagner.
Darkhorse: Since the Northeast Conference reseeds after each round (with the lowest remaining seed playing at the home gym of the highest remaining seed), finding a darkhorse in past seasons has proven difficult. We will stay close to the vest for our darkhorse this season and jump on the bandwagon of the Monmouth Hawks. The Hawks are the only team to have defeated Central Connecticut State twice this season. The Hawks also own an overtime win against Fairleigh Dickinson, ending the Knights' 11 game winning streak back on February 20. We are looking for Monmouth to avenge last season's disappointing finish and reclaim their spot in the Big Dance.
Big South:
FIRST ROUND
Each game played at higher seed
Tuesday, Feb 28
Game 1: No. 1 Winthrop vs. No. 8 Liberty, 7:30 p.m.
Game 2: No. 4 Radford vs. No. 5 High Point, 7 p.m.
Game 3: No. 2 Coastal Carolina vs. No. 7 UNC Asheville 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 3 Birmingham-Southern vs. No. 6 Charleston Southern, 8 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
At Winthrop ColiseumRock Hill, S.C.
Thursday, March 2
Game 5: Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner
Game 6: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner
CHAMPIONSHIP
Game played at higher seed
Saturday, March 4
Game 7: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner
Recap: The start of the Big South Conference schedule had many pundits predicting the Winthrop Eagles would easily win the conference race (while more than a few projected the Eagles might even finish undefeated by season's end). In the end the Eagles did emerge on top of the conference standings, although not after a few surprises and a few shocking losses. Three teams (Winthrop, Birmingham Southern and Coastal Carolina) finished the conference schedule with 12 wins or more; a first in Big South Conference play. The conference also experienced some benefit from several notable upsets (highlighted by Winthrop's win at Marquette on November 19th). The conference finished in the top 20 RPI for the first time in the brief history of the Big South.
Favorite: The Winthrop Eagles are a tenuous favorite. bolstered by their having the benefit of playing home games through the conference finals. The Eagles did stumble at home once this season, losing to Coastal Carolina. The Eagles were 12-1 at home this season and are 28-1 at home since the start of the 2004-05 season. In addition, the Eagles closest margin of victory in their seven conference home wins was never less than 16 points. Their stellar home record and solid play for the majority of the 2005-06 campaign places Winthrop ahead of a very strong pack of contenders. The other two teams with strong chances to take the Big South title are the Birmingham Southern Panthers and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. The Panthers reeled of nine straight victories from early January through early February to take a brief lead in the Big South Conference race. The Chanticleers enter the conference tournament as the hottest team in the Big South, riding a ten game winning streak. Coastal Carolina entered their road game at Winthrop with a record of 4-9 (2-4 in conference). Coastal Carolina emerged with an improbable victory and a season sweep of Winthrop, after defeating the Eagles at home eleven days later. In addition, the Chanticleers have only won by less than seven points once during their winning streak.
Darkhorse: It would be hard to call Coastal Carolina a darkhorse, given their winning streak and their success against Winthrop this season. Yet, there is no team playing as well right now in the Big South as Coastal Carolina. Given Winthrop's dominance at home the past two seasons, it would appear the only team with the resume to challenge the Eagles is the Chanticleers.
Horizon League:
FIRST ROUND
Games played at higher seed
Tuesday, Feb. 28
Game 1: No. 6 Illinois-Chicago vs. No. 7 Wright State, 7 p.m.
Game 2: No. 5 Detroit vs. No. 8 Cleveland State, 7 p.m.
Game 3: No. 4 Loyola-Chi. vs. No. 9 Youngstown State, 8 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
At The Klotsche Center
Milwaukee, Wis.
Friday, March 3
Game 4: No. 3 Wisconsin-Green Bay vs. Game 1 winner, 4:30 p.m.
Game 5: Game 2 winner vs. Game 3 winner, 7 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 4
Game 6: No. 2 Butler vs. Game 4 winner, 4:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
Game 7: No. 1 Wisconsin-Milwaukee vs. Game 5 winner, 7 p.m. (ESPNU)
CHAMPIONSHIP
Game played at higher seed
Tuesday, March 7
Game 8: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 winner, 9 p.m. (ESPN)
Recap: Wisconsin-Milwaukee struggled to finish the conference season in first places, losing three of their last six conference games. The Panthers did finish on top of the league, but only after Detroit upset Butler on the last Saturday of league play.
Favorite: Wisconsin-Milwaukee is a slight favorite because the tournament is played on their home court and the Panthers earned a pass to the league semifinals based on their second place finish. In addition, all four teams that defeated UWM are in the lower half of the bracket. UWM will face a serious challenge from the Butler Bulldogs. Butler 9-3 in their last 12 games, split their two regular season games with the Panthers.
Darkhorse: Any darkhorse is likely to come from the lower half of the bracket of the conference tournament. Wisconsin-Green Bay earned the #3 seed on the basis of a tiebreaker of five teams, all with 8-8 records. Illinois-Chicago swept Wright State, defeated UWM and Wisconsin-Green Bay this season. Unfortunately, the Flames were swept by Butler during the conference season. If Wright State can get by Illinois-Chicago, the Raiders face three potential opponents which they have played tough all season.
Ohio Valley:
FIRST ROUND
Game played at higher seed
Tuesday, Feb. 28
Game 1: No. 1 Murray State vs. No. 8 UT-Martin, 8 p.m.
Game 2: No. 4 Jacksonville St. vs. No. 5 Eastern Kentucky, 8 p.m.
Game 3: No. 2 Samford vs. No. 7 Tennessee State, 8:30 p.m.
Game 4: No. 3 Tennessee Tech vs. No. 6 Austin Peay, 8:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
At The Gaylord Entertainment Center
Nashville, Tenn.
Friday, March 3
Game 5: Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner, 7 p.m. (ESPNU)
Game 6: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner, 9:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 5
Game 7: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
Recap: The Ohio Valley Conference boasted seven teams with winning conference records this season. The Samford Bulldogs experienced a resurgence, finishing with 14 conference wins and an overall record of 16-10. Murray State once again was the class of the league, finishing 17-3 in conference and 20-6 overall. Tennessee-Martin is the only conference team to enter the tournament with a losing record. The Ohio valley Conference is one of the few NCAA conferences that has its members play every other conference member twice. The tight constraints on scheduling typically allow OVC teams the opportunity to schedule very few non-conference games.
Favorite: Murray State is an obvious favorite, having posted just three losses in 20 conference games. The only two teams in the conference tournament to defeat the Racers are in the lower half of the bracket, giving Murray State a good chance to at least make it to the conference finals. Samford finished in second place, just ahead of Tennessee Tech. Both teams struggled as the conference schedule came to a close. The Bulldogs have lost four of their last six games, while the Eagles have dropped six of their last ten games.
Darkhorse: Austin Peay will be looking to repeat last year's tournament success (when they posted two straight upsets on their way to a championship game loss to Eastern Kentucky). The Governors have six losses of ten points or less during the conference schedule. Once again, Austin Peay faces the challenge of having to win at Tennessee Tech in the conference opener and then possibly face Samford in the conference semifinals.
We will post each conference tournament preview and schedule as the calendar progresses towards Championip Week.
History DOESN'T always repeat itself
Updated conference tournament brackets and projections at Bubbleteams.com
Yesterday we analyzed the recent trends and history of teams that finished in the top 40 RPI and how that correlated to inclusion in the NCAA Tournament. What we failed to address was the recent changes to the RPI and how those changes have already has a significant affect on the teams in the top 40 RPI and what teams may (or may not) make the NCAA Tournament field.
It has been well publicized and well documented that in December 2005, the NCAA committee implemented a revised RPI formula to give additional weight to playing and winning games on the road. The new formula weighs road victories and home losses at 1.4; home victories and road losses, at .6; and neutral-site victories and losses at 1.0. The impact and significance of that change has yet to be determined and likely will not be for several years. However, we can analyze the short-term impact and how the landscape of something as simple, yet powerful, as the top 40 teams in the RPI has been affected.
Since 1999 the number of at-large teams selected from the top 40 RPI has remained steady, never falling below 27 and never rising above 30.
In that time the following trends have occurred:
The Big 6 conferences (ACC, SEC, Big 10, Pac 10, Big 12, Big East) have nabbed 152 at-large bids and 40 automatic bids (in fact, only twice in the last seven years has a Big 6 team from outside the RPI top 40 won an automatic bid-2003 Oregon #50 RPI and 2000 Arkansas #45 RPI).
In that same stretch of time, the top 40 RPI teams from the not-so-major, yet not-so-mid-major conferences (Conference USA, Atlantic Ten, Mountain West and WAC) have earned 17 automatic bids and 37 at-large bids.
Over the same period, the top 40 RPI "mid-majors", comprising the Missouri Valley, West Coast, Southern, MAAC, Big West, MAC, Sun Belt, America East, Colonial and now defunct Midwestern Collegiate (now the Horizon League) and TAAC (now the Atlantic Sun) conferences have earned 16 automatic bids and 10 at-large bids.
This breakdown of bids (automatic and at-large) is only significant if you look at the change in the RPI top 40 teams representing the lower major and mid-major programs last year and this year. There were 7 mid-major teams in the top 40 RPI in 2005 and in 2006 there is an improvement on those numbers with 9 mid-major teams in the top 40 RPI. That total number of 15 teams from this season and last season is almost equal to the number of top 40 mid-major RPI teams from the previous six seasons (19 total) combined.
The surprising statistic is that the teams from the Big 6 conferences have not suffered. From the years 1999-2004, the Big 6 have averaged 27.5 teams in the top 40 RPI. The Big 6 had 27 teams in last season's final top 40 RPI and this season that number remains the same at 27.
The conferences that have suffered are the low-majors (Conference USA, WAC, Mountain West, Atlantic Ten). The years 1999-2004, 48 teams from low-major conferences had teams in the final top 40 RPI, an average of almost 7 per year. Last season, that number dropped to six teams. This season, that number has dwindled to a seven-year low of 4 teams. Some argument can be made that the losses by Conference USA to the Big East has lowered the number of top 40 RPI worthy teams, but the impact is still the same.
The low-major conferences have been significantly hurt by the defections to the Big 6 conferences, the rise in the mid-majors... and possibly by the alteration in the RPI formula.
The question now posed is "Given the tendency of the NCAA Selection Committee to select teams from the top 40 RPI (198 of 205 eligible teams since 1999) and the predominance of mid-major teams in the top 40 RPI this year (nine as of today's date), will the committee buck the trends of the past and ignore those mid-major teams with top 40 RPI for at-large teams from other conferences?"
If the committee does reward those top 40 RPI teams from mid-major conferences, what can be said about the short-term impact of the changes to the RPI formula?
We would be remiss to close without noting......... To say that the changes in the calculation of the RPI has already changed the teams selected by the NCAA Tournament Committee would be shortsighted and without merit, considered such a small sample of seasons affected by the changes in the new RPI. However, in years to come, it will be most intriguing to observe if the college basketball world will forever be altered by such a subtle change in a glorified math formula.
As always, your comments, questions and outbursts are welcome and encouraged.
Yesterday we analyzed the recent trends and history of teams that finished in the top 40 RPI and how that correlated to inclusion in the NCAA Tournament. What we failed to address was the recent changes to the RPI and how those changes have already has a significant affect on the teams in the top 40 RPI and what teams may (or may not) make the NCAA Tournament field.
It has been well publicized and well documented that in December 2005, the NCAA committee implemented a revised RPI formula to give additional weight to playing and winning games on the road. The new formula weighs road victories and home losses at 1.4; home victories and road losses, at .6; and neutral-site victories and losses at 1.0. The impact and significance of that change has yet to be determined and likely will not be for several years. However, we can analyze the short-term impact and how the landscape of something as simple, yet powerful, as the top 40 teams in the RPI has been affected.
Since 1999 the number of at-large teams selected from the top 40 RPI has remained steady, never falling below 27 and never rising above 30.
In that time the following trends have occurred:
The Big 6 conferences (ACC, SEC, Big 10, Pac 10, Big 12, Big East) have nabbed 152 at-large bids and 40 automatic bids (in fact, only twice in the last seven years has a Big 6 team from outside the RPI top 40 won an automatic bid-2003 Oregon #50 RPI and 2000 Arkansas #45 RPI).
In that same stretch of time, the top 40 RPI teams from the not-so-major, yet not-so-mid-major conferences (Conference USA, Atlantic Ten, Mountain West and WAC) have earned 17 automatic bids and 37 at-large bids.
Over the same period, the top 40 RPI "mid-majors", comprising the Missouri Valley, West Coast, Southern, MAAC, Big West, MAC, Sun Belt, America East, Colonial and now defunct Midwestern Collegiate (now the Horizon League) and TAAC (now the Atlantic Sun) conferences have earned 16 automatic bids and 10 at-large bids.
This breakdown of bids (automatic and at-large) is only significant if you look at the change in the RPI top 40 teams representing the lower major and mid-major programs last year and this year. There were 7 mid-major teams in the top 40 RPI in 2005 and in 2006 there is an improvement on those numbers with 9 mid-major teams in the top 40 RPI. That total number of 15 teams from this season and last season is almost equal to the number of top 40 mid-major RPI teams from the previous six seasons (19 total) combined.
The surprising statistic is that the teams from the Big 6 conferences have not suffered. From the years 1999-2004, the Big 6 have averaged 27.5 teams in the top 40 RPI. The Big 6 had 27 teams in last season's final top 40 RPI and this season that number remains the same at 27.
The conferences that have suffered are the low-majors (Conference USA, WAC, Mountain West, Atlantic Ten). The years 1999-2004, 48 teams from low-major conferences had teams in the final top 40 RPI, an average of almost 7 per year. Last season, that number dropped to six teams. This season, that number has dwindled to a seven-year low of 4 teams. Some argument can be made that the losses by Conference USA to the Big East has lowered the number of top 40 RPI worthy teams, but the impact is still the same.
The low-major conferences have been significantly hurt by the defections to the Big 6 conferences, the rise in the mid-majors... and possibly by the alteration in the RPI formula.
The question now posed is "Given the tendency of the NCAA Selection Committee to select teams from the top 40 RPI (198 of 205 eligible teams since 1999) and the predominance of mid-major teams in the top 40 RPI this year (nine as of today's date), will the committee buck the trends of the past and ignore those mid-major teams with top 40 RPI for at-large teams from other conferences?"
If the committee does reward those top 40 RPI teams from mid-major conferences, what can be said about the short-term impact of the changes to the RPI formula?
We would be remiss to close without noting......... To say that the changes in the calculation of the RPI has already changed the teams selected by the NCAA Tournament Committee would be shortsighted and without merit, considered such a small sample of seasons affected by the changes in the new RPI. However, in years to come, it will be most intriguing to observe if the college basketball world will forever be altered by such a subtle change in a glorified math formula.
As always, your comments, questions and outbursts are welcome and encouraged.
Monday, February 27, 2006
A Little Piece o' History
Be sure to check out our updated scores, conference tournament brackets, conference tournament previews and NCAA Tournament projections at Bubbleteams.com
In 1981 the NCAA sanctioned the use of the Ratings Percentage Index, or RPI, to aid in the selection of teams to the NCAA Men's Division 1 Basketball Tournament. As the tournament field has grown, so has the uncertainty and confusion regarding how the RPI is calculated and the utter disgust with the results from what is little more than an overblown algebra equation. In recent years, many news services, news outlets and personal bloggers have duplicated the RPI in an effort to inform and educate the public.
The NCAA Selection Committee has always stated that use of the RPI is merely one tool utilized in a much larger process of choosing the 34 at-large teams for the NCAA Tournament. However, if you look back at the last seven years of RPI history and correlate it to the teams selected for the NCAA Basketball Tournament, some distinct patterns and results do emerge.
Since 1999, just seven NCAA Tournament eligible teams that finished in the top 40 RPI have been left out of the NCAA Tournament (in 2003, #5 RPI Georgia declared themselves ineligible for the NCAA Tournament in response to possible rules violations by then head coach Jim Harrick). RPI numbers, courtesy of Ken Pomeroy are results after all conference tournament games have concluded and are final as of the Selection Sunday from each respective year.
Those teams are:
1999-Oregon 15-11 #40 RPI
2000-SW Missouri State 22-10 #34 RPI
2000-Kent State 19-7 #36 RPI
2000-Vanderbilt 19-10 #39 RPI
2001-Mississippi State 16-12 #40 RPI
2003-UNLV 21-10 #40 RPI
2004-LSU 18-10 #38 RPI
A closer inspection of these numbers indicate that nearly half of the teams left out of the tournament with an RPI of 40 or better occurred in 2000. Since 2001, only two eligible teams been snubbed for at-large bid. Twice has a team with 20 or more wins finished in the top 40 RPI and not been selected and no team lower than #34 RPI has been left out of the NCAA Tournament in the past seven years. Over that seven-year time span, 198 eligible teams (an average of 28 teams per year) have earned at-large bids from a potential pool of 205 possible teams, a 97% rate of success.
When analyzed, there is arguably no better indicator of whether a team will make the NCAA Tournament than finishing in the top 40 RPI. To further strengthen that argument, there is an even better chance of making it to the NCAA Tournament if you finish with 20 or more wins and end the season in the top 40 RPI.
While this is not an absolute guarantee of selection into the NCAA Tournament, it has been a steady and solid indicator of which teams the NCAA Selection Committee will choose for inclusion for the Big Dance come March.
Tomorrow, we will delve into the changes that have occurred since the NCAA altered the way the RPI is calculated and how those changes might affect the teams selected to the Tournament this year.
As always, your comments, questions and outbursts are welcome and encouraged.
In 1981 the NCAA sanctioned the use of the Ratings Percentage Index, or RPI, to aid in the selection of teams to the NCAA Men's Division 1 Basketball Tournament. As the tournament field has grown, so has the uncertainty and confusion regarding how the RPI is calculated and the utter disgust with the results from what is little more than an overblown algebra equation. In recent years, many news services, news outlets and personal bloggers have duplicated the RPI in an effort to inform and educate the public.
The NCAA Selection Committee has always stated that use of the RPI is merely one tool utilized in a much larger process of choosing the 34 at-large teams for the NCAA Tournament. However, if you look back at the last seven years of RPI history and correlate it to the teams selected for the NCAA Basketball Tournament, some distinct patterns and results do emerge.
Since 1999, just seven NCAA Tournament eligible teams that finished in the top 40 RPI have been left out of the NCAA Tournament (in 2003, #5 RPI Georgia declared themselves ineligible for the NCAA Tournament in response to possible rules violations by then head coach Jim Harrick). RPI numbers, courtesy of Ken Pomeroy are results after all conference tournament games have concluded and are final as of the Selection Sunday from each respective year.
Those teams are:
1999-Oregon 15-11 #40 RPI
2000-SW Missouri State 22-10 #34 RPI
2000-Kent State 19-7 #36 RPI
2000-Vanderbilt 19-10 #39 RPI
2001-Mississippi State 16-12 #40 RPI
2003-UNLV 21-10 #40 RPI
2004-LSU 18-10 #38 RPI
A closer inspection of these numbers indicate that nearly half of the teams left out of the tournament with an RPI of 40 or better occurred in 2000. Since 2001, only two eligible teams been snubbed for at-large bid. Twice has a team with 20 or more wins finished in the top 40 RPI and not been selected and no team lower than #34 RPI has been left out of the NCAA Tournament in the past seven years. Over that seven-year time span, 198 eligible teams (an average of 28 teams per year) have earned at-large bids from a potential pool of 205 possible teams, a 97% rate of success.
When analyzed, there is arguably no better indicator of whether a team will make the NCAA Tournament than finishing in the top 40 RPI. To further strengthen that argument, there is an even better chance of making it to the NCAA Tournament if you finish with 20 or more wins and end the season in the top 40 RPI.
While this is not an absolute guarantee of selection into the NCAA Tournament, it has been a steady and solid indicator of which teams the NCAA Selection Committee will choose for inclusion for the Big Dance come March.
Tomorrow, we will delve into the changes that have occurred since the NCAA altered the way the RPI is calculated and how those changes might affect the teams selected to the Tournament this year.
As always, your comments, questions and outbursts are welcome and encouraged.
Sunday, February 26, 2006
Blowing Bubbles
Check out updated conference tournament brackets and projections at Bubbleteams.com
More movers and shakers:
More than a few teams saw a change of fortune on Sunday. We will offer timely updates and projections as Sunday's action progresses.
Indiana: Many dropped Indiana from the bubble after their recent string of five straight losses (in fact the Hoosiers had lost six of seven before their win at home against Penn State). The Hoosiers and Mike Davis rebounded from adversity, winning their last two games and setting themselves up nicely for a possible at-large bid. Indiana has a marginal overall record, 15-10 and a spotty RPI (#49 before their win against Michigan State) that should improve. What sets the Hoosiers aside from other bubble teams is their four wins against teams from the top 25 RPI (defeating Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Illinois) and a .500 record in the #1 RPI conference in the NCAA. Indiana needs to win at least one of their remaining two games (at Purdue and at Michigan) and avoid losing their opening round game in the Big ten Tournament. Should Mike Davis and Indiana accomplish both feats, Indiana should have enough of a resume to warrant an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Minnesota: The Gophers loss to Wisconsin drops Minnesota to 5-9 in the Big Ten and just 14-11 overall. With a weak RPI of 67 and a lack of a solid at-large resume, tis' time to put the dreams of a bubble bid to bed for the Gophers this year. Enjoy the NIT boys.
Alabama: The Crimson Tide have extinguished any uncertainty about their deserving an at-large bid with yet another win against a top 25 team. Alabama has a solid 9-5 record in the SEC West and with games against Auburn and Mississippi State remaining, the Tide appear to be cinch to grab an at-large berth in this year's tournament.
Maryland: The Terrapins continue to slide towards an NIT bid, suffering their seventh loss in their last nine games. Maryland now stands 6-8 in the ACC and with just 2 wins against the top 50 RPI, Maryland team will fail to make the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season, unless they would somehow catch fire and inexplicably win the ACC Tournament.
California: The Bears split their weekend series in the state of Washington, still facing the prospect of needing at least one win in their final two home games against USC and UCLA. While California has a weak RPI, they still own an 11-5 conference record. As long as the Bears split their last two games, they would finish 12-6 in the Pac Ten Conference. While a weak RPI and few solid wins hurt the Bears chances of an at-large bid, the NCAA Selection Committee has historically rewarded teams from power conferences with solid conference records like the Bears currently own.
More movers and shakers:
More than a few teams saw a change of fortune on Sunday. We will offer timely updates and projections as Sunday's action progresses.
Indiana: Many dropped Indiana from the bubble after their recent string of five straight losses (in fact the Hoosiers had lost six of seven before their win at home against Penn State). The Hoosiers and Mike Davis rebounded from adversity, winning their last two games and setting themselves up nicely for a possible at-large bid. Indiana has a marginal overall record, 15-10 and a spotty RPI (#49 before their win against Michigan State) that should improve. What sets the Hoosiers aside from other bubble teams is their four wins against teams from the top 25 RPI (defeating Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Illinois) and a .500 record in the #1 RPI conference in the NCAA. Indiana needs to win at least one of their remaining two games (at Purdue and at Michigan) and avoid losing their opening round game in the Big ten Tournament. Should Mike Davis and Indiana accomplish both feats, Indiana should have enough of a resume to warrant an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Minnesota: The Gophers loss to Wisconsin drops Minnesota to 5-9 in the Big Ten and just 14-11 overall. With a weak RPI of 67 and a lack of a solid at-large resume, tis' time to put the dreams of a bubble bid to bed for the Gophers this year. Enjoy the NIT boys.
Alabama: The Crimson Tide have extinguished any uncertainty about their deserving an at-large bid with yet another win against a top 25 team. Alabama has a solid 9-5 record in the SEC West and with games against Auburn and Mississippi State remaining, the Tide appear to be cinch to grab an at-large berth in this year's tournament.
Maryland: The Terrapins continue to slide towards an NIT bid, suffering their seventh loss in their last nine games. Maryland now stands 6-8 in the ACC and with just 2 wins against the top 50 RPI, Maryland team will fail to make the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season, unless they would somehow catch fire and inexplicably win the ACC Tournament.
California: The Bears split their weekend series in the state of Washington, still facing the prospect of needing at least one win in their final two home games against USC and UCLA. While California has a weak RPI, they still own an 11-5 conference record. As long as the Bears split their last two games, they would finish 12-6 in the Pac Ten Conference. While a weak RPI and few solid wins hurt the Bears chances of an at-large bid, the NCAA Selection Committee has historically rewarded teams from power conferences with solid conference records like the Bears currently own.
Bubble Bath
Conference Tournament Brackets are up and available at bubbleteams.com.
Movers and Shakers:
Several teams improved their stock on Saturday and a few lost ground in their quest to capture an elusive at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Here is the breakdown on the best.... and worst Saturday had to offer:
Syracuse: The Orangemen are still in good shape for a bid, as long as they win one of the two remaining games on their schedule. However, Syracuse should be wary of this week's trip to DePaul. The Blue Demons have already played spoiler, upsetting Seton Hall and placing the Pirates in peril of missing the tournament.
Arkansas: The Razorbacks have all but clinched an at-large bid with three solid wins against what should be three tournament teams. Arkansas just needs to win one of their remaining two games (at Georgia and a home date with Mississippi State) to sew up a berth. However, should the 'Backs lose either game and then drop their opener in the SEC Tournament, their inclusion in the dance would once again become suspect.
Michigan: The Wolverines still need one more win to solidify their spot in this year's field. Should Michigan lose at home to Indiana in their Big Ten finale and then lose their opener in the Big Ten Tournament, it would become sketchy to include the Wolverines with what would then be a losing Big Ten record. One more win and you can pencil Michigan in.
Colorado: To bad the Buffaloes can not play the Big 12 Tournament on their home court in Boulder. If that were the case, Colorado would be a solid favorite to march into the NCAA. Unfortunately, Colorado still has one more road game, at Kansas, on their schedule. Given the Buffaloes predilection for losing road games to marginal teams (at Iowa State, at Texas A&M, at Nebraska, at Kansas State), it would be hard to imagine the Buffs winning at Kansas this week. A loss in Lawrence would leave the Buffaloes needing to defeat Iowa State in their season finale just to get to 9-7 in the conference. Now that Texas A&M has tied them in the conference race for fourth place, the Buffaloes' chances of clearing a first round bye in the Big 12 Tournament is in serious jeopardy. Colorado needs to win both games this week to feel safe about a possible at-large bid. Lose either game and the Buffaloes will need to make a serious run in their conference tournament to make it to the NCAA this year.
Southern Illinois: The only MVC team that had a better Saturday than the Salukis was Wichita State (sewing up first place and a #1 seed in the conference tournament). The Salukis rebounded from three straight losses to drop Northern Iowa and grab the #2 seed in this week's MVC Tournament. The Salukis now have a good shot to make it to the tournament semifinals, facing the winner of Illinois State-Evansville in the quarterfinals. Southern Illinois also avoids having to face any of the five possible NCAA quality teams in the tournament until the semifinals. Southern Illinois still has a solid resume and given the struggles of several MVC teams as of late, the Salukis still have a good shot to be rewarded with an at-large bid from the MVC this year.
Northern Iowa: The Panthers looked to be a lock two weeks. Four losses in their last five games, including their last four conference games has turned Northern Iowa into a legitimate bubble team and dropped the Panthers into a tie for fifth place in the MVC. Northern Iowa still has wins against LSU, Iowa, Bucknell, Missouri State and a season sweep of Wichita State on their tournament resume. To be on the safe side, the Panthers REALLY could use a win in the opening round of the MVC Tournament against Missouri State. Should they lose that game, Northern Iowa would be left waiting to see if they are rewarded for a solid start instead of punished for a poor finish?
Virginia: Enough bubble talk. Lose AT Clemson by 26 ??? Not the stuff at-large teams are made of.
NC Wilmington: The Seahawks capture a regular season title and are awarded a #1 seed in the Colonial Tournament. Best to win their opening round game to be safe. Regardless of that outcome, a soft bubble should allow for the NC Wilmington to slide in with an at-large berth from the CAA.
Seton Hall: Has any other team done more damage to their tournament chances this past week than the Pirates? Seton Hall has not only lost three straight games.... the Pirates have lost three straight games to teams from the bottom half of the league (possibly losing to three teams that might not even make the Big East Tournament). The Hall had what was arguably the easiest road to Selection Sunday. Louis Orr and the Pirates have turned their pot of gold into bucket of ........ well, you get the analogy. The Pirates MUST win their last two games to even be reconsidered on the bubble again. Beyond that, it would behoove Seton Hall to make some noise in the Big East Tournament. Otherwise, the Big East will no be getting those elusive nine bids so many are predicting.
Kentucky: The Wildcats have only defeated one SEC team in the current top 50 RPI (Arkansas). They have defeated one SEC team with a winning conference record. In other words, Kentucky has fashioned an 8-6 conference mark with wins against some of the worst teams the SEC has to offer. The bright side of this coin is the reality Kentucky has defeated the team sit was supposed to (hear that Vanderbilt). The problem is now Kentucky has very few solid wins to prop up their tournament resume. The Wildcats have two more chances to make a statement to the selection committee this week, facing a wounded Tennessee in Knoxville and a home finale against Florida. The Wildcats MUST win one of those two games to make their case for a possible at-large bid. Otherwise, should the boys from Lexington lose both games, it would be necessary for UK to make a deep run in the SEC Tournament in order to earn a bid this year.
Arizona: Just win one of their last two games and the Wildcats make the dance yet again.
Texas A&M: Despite the cries and complaints of many a college basketball fan, the Aggies have a serious shot at an at-large bid, should they win their final two games. A win at home against top ranked Texas would give A&M the marquee win they lack. A win at Texas Tech in their season finale would give the Aggies a 10-6 record in the Big 12 and top four seed for the Big 12 Tournament. Although a horrific non-conference schedule will hurt the Aggies chances with the selection committee, a solid conference mark coupled with a strong finish might be just enough to push Texas A&M over the top and into the NCAAs.
Hofstra: It is still rather unfathomable that the Pride (or Flying Dutchmen for those of with a penchant for nostalgia) might be in line for an at-large bid to the dance this year. Typically, the selection committee rewards teams that win regular season titles with at-large bids. Hofstra still only has two wins against the top 50 RP, yet their own ranking is a solid #37. A more unique scenario would be Hofstra making a run through the CAA Tournament and winning the title, thus allowing both George Mason and NC Wilmington to also earn at-large bids. Anything less than that and the Pride will be placing their fate in the hands of a committee that has long been fickle to reward Colonial teams with deserving bids.
Air Force: The Falcons just keep on winning. Despite no wins against the top 50 RPI (in fact Air Force has played only one game against the top 50 RPI, losing at Washington nearly two weeks before Thanksgiving), the Falcons have cracked the 40 barrier of the RPI and appear to be a legitimate bubble team. That said, Air Force could ill afford to lose any more games. Their season finale at Colorado State is a must win and making a good showing in the MWC Tournament would bode well for the Falcons in their quest for an at-large bid.
Florida State: The Seminoles seem to be this year's candidate for charity, repeatedly getting much publicity, praise and support for an at-large bid despite just one win against the top 50 RPI (against Maryland). Perhaps it is because without a bid for Florida State the ACC will likely garner no more than four bids and HOW, oh HOW could a conference as mighty and powerful and fabulous as the ACC only earn four bids to the NCAA Tournament ?? The answer might be that the ACC deserves no more than four bids, as almost every middle road ACC team (Clemson, Virginia, Miami, Florida State, Maryland) are all devouring each other game after game. This is a four bid league. PERIOD!!! So unless one of the unchosen few makes a run through Greensboro to win the tournament title, accept it and move one.
UAB: Last season UAB was the first team in recent memory to be awarded with an at-large bid despite no wins against the top 50 RPI. If not for a soft bubble and some weak competition, the Blazers would have been left out of the tournament and enjoying the warmth and hospitality of the NIT. Forward to almost one year later and we find ourselves saying exactly the same thing. The Blazers have a nice record, a solid conference mark and yet have no wins against the top 50 RPI and no win to make their resume seem even remotely attractive. However, this year UAB still has a chance to grab that gold piece in the form of the Memphis Tigers. Should UAB defeat Memphis this week and avoid a letdown against Marshall in their season finale, they will have arguably done more than last year. Given last years weak resume earned them an at-large bid, it would be reasonable to believe this year they would get the same reward.
Bradley: The Braves are yet another enigma. Coming from out of nowhere to get some attention at season's end, Bradley has put themselves in position to possibly steal a bid from the muddled MVC. The Braves do have wins against Western Kentucky, Creighton, Missouri State, Southern Illinois and a season sweep of Northern Iowa. The Braves have also won nine of their last 11 games and finished fifth in the regular season MVC, ahead of Northern Iowa. Bradley faces Creighton in their opening round game of the MVC Tournament. Should they win that game, it would be hard to deny the Braves an at-large bid, despite a spotty resume and a bland non-conference schedule.
Creighton and Missouri State: Both teams finished the regular season 12-6 in the MVC and each team has enough solid wins (along with a top RPI) to get an at-large bid to the dance. Anticipate both of these teams will make the NCAA Tournament regardless of their outcome at the MVC Tournament.
Houston: Just when you thought Houston might make their way back into world of the bubble, the Cougars lose at UTEP to fall to 8-4 in Conference USA. While losing at UTEP is not entirely shameful (after all, UAB got smoked 65-37 at UTEP recently), when combined with several other bad losses on their schedule (at Rice, at home vs. Central Florida), this loss pushes Houston off the bubble and into the land of NIT. Should the Cougars somehow sell their soul and find a way to win at Memphis next weekend, we might be forced to reevaluate this circumstance.
UTEP: The fact people are even considering UTEP as a possible bubble team shows just how weak the bubble is this season. Nice team, nice city, no chance !
Utah State: Same can be said for the Aggies. 9-5 teams sporting two losses to New Mexico State do not get placed on the bubble, even in a year as weak as this one.
We will have more movers and shakers after Sunday's games.
Check out the conference tournament brackets, scores and other features on our sister site bubbleteams.com.
Movers and Shakers:
Several teams improved their stock on Saturday and a few lost ground in their quest to capture an elusive at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Here is the breakdown on the best.... and worst Saturday had to offer:
Syracuse: The Orangemen are still in good shape for a bid, as long as they win one of the two remaining games on their schedule. However, Syracuse should be wary of this week's trip to DePaul. The Blue Demons have already played spoiler, upsetting Seton Hall and placing the Pirates in peril of missing the tournament.
Arkansas: The Razorbacks have all but clinched an at-large bid with three solid wins against what should be three tournament teams. Arkansas just needs to win one of their remaining two games (at Georgia and a home date with Mississippi State) to sew up a berth. However, should the 'Backs lose either game and then drop their opener in the SEC Tournament, their inclusion in the dance would once again become suspect.
Michigan: The Wolverines still need one more win to solidify their spot in this year's field. Should Michigan lose at home to Indiana in their Big Ten finale and then lose their opener in the Big Ten Tournament, it would become sketchy to include the Wolverines with what would then be a losing Big Ten record. One more win and you can pencil Michigan in.
Colorado: To bad the Buffaloes can not play the Big 12 Tournament on their home court in Boulder. If that were the case, Colorado would be a solid favorite to march into the NCAA. Unfortunately, Colorado still has one more road game, at Kansas, on their schedule. Given the Buffaloes predilection for losing road games to marginal teams (at Iowa State, at Texas A&M, at Nebraska, at Kansas State), it would be hard to imagine the Buffs winning at Kansas this week. A loss in Lawrence would leave the Buffaloes needing to defeat Iowa State in their season finale just to get to 9-7 in the conference. Now that Texas A&M has tied them in the conference race for fourth place, the Buffaloes' chances of clearing a first round bye in the Big 12 Tournament is in serious jeopardy. Colorado needs to win both games this week to feel safe about a possible at-large bid. Lose either game and the Buffaloes will need to make a serious run in their conference tournament to make it to the NCAA this year.
Southern Illinois: The only MVC team that had a better Saturday than the Salukis was Wichita State (sewing up first place and a #1 seed in the conference tournament). The Salukis rebounded from three straight losses to drop Northern Iowa and grab the #2 seed in this week's MVC Tournament. The Salukis now have a good shot to make it to the tournament semifinals, facing the winner of Illinois State-Evansville in the quarterfinals. Southern Illinois also avoids having to face any of the five possible NCAA quality teams in the tournament until the semifinals. Southern Illinois still has a solid resume and given the struggles of several MVC teams as of late, the Salukis still have a good shot to be rewarded with an at-large bid from the MVC this year.
Northern Iowa: The Panthers looked to be a lock two weeks. Four losses in their last five games, including their last four conference games has turned Northern Iowa into a legitimate bubble team and dropped the Panthers into a tie for fifth place in the MVC. Northern Iowa still has wins against LSU, Iowa, Bucknell, Missouri State and a season sweep of Wichita State on their tournament resume. To be on the safe side, the Panthers REALLY could use a win in the opening round of the MVC Tournament against Missouri State. Should they lose that game, Northern Iowa would be left waiting to see if they are rewarded for a solid start instead of punished for a poor finish?
Virginia: Enough bubble talk. Lose AT Clemson by 26 ??? Not the stuff at-large teams are made of.
NC Wilmington: The Seahawks capture a regular season title and are awarded a #1 seed in the Colonial Tournament. Best to win their opening round game to be safe. Regardless of that outcome, a soft bubble should allow for the NC Wilmington to slide in with an at-large berth from the CAA.
Seton Hall: Has any other team done more damage to their tournament chances this past week than the Pirates? Seton Hall has not only lost three straight games.... the Pirates have lost three straight games to teams from the bottom half of the league (possibly losing to three teams that might not even make the Big East Tournament). The Hall had what was arguably the easiest road to Selection Sunday. Louis Orr and the Pirates have turned their pot of gold into bucket of ........ well, you get the analogy. The Pirates MUST win their last two games to even be reconsidered on the bubble again. Beyond that, it would behoove Seton Hall to make some noise in the Big East Tournament. Otherwise, the Big East will no be getting those elusive nine bids so many are predicting.
Kentucky: The Wildcats have only defeated one SEC team in the current top 50 RPI (Arkansas). They have defeated one SEC team with a winning conference record. In other words, Kentucky has fashioned an 8-6 conference mark with wins against some of the worst teams the SEC has to offer. The bright side of this coin is the reality Kentucky has defeated the team sit was supposed to (hear that Vanderbilt). The problem is now Kentucky has very few solid wins to prop up their tournament resume. The Wildcats have two more chances to make a statement to the selection committee this week, facing a wounded Tennessee in Knoxville and a home finale against Florida. The Wildcats MUST win one of those two games to make their case for a possible at-large bid. Otherwise, should the boys from Lexington lose both games, it would be necessary for UK to make a deep run in the SEC Tournament in order to earn a bid this year.
Arizona: Just win one of their last two games and the Wildcats make the dance yet again.
Texas A&M: Despite the cries and complaints of many a college basketball fan, the Aggies have a serious shot at an at-large bid, should they win their final two games. A win at home against top ranked Texas would give A&M the marquee win they lack. A win at Texas Tech in their season finale would give the Aggies a 10-6 record in the Big 12 and top four seed for the Big 12 Tournament. Although a horrific non-conference schedule will hurt the Aggies chances with the selection committee, a solid conference mark coupled with a strong finish might be just enough to push Texas A&M over the top and into the NCAAs.
Hofstra: It is still rather unfathomable that the Pride (or Flying Dutchmen for those of with a penchant for nostalgia) might be in line for an at-large bid to the dance this year. Typically, the selection committee rewards teams that win regular season titles with at-large bids. Hofstra still only has two wins against the top 50 RP, yet their own ranking is a solid #37. A more unique scenario would be Hofstra making a run through the CAA Tournament and winning the title, thus allowing both George Mason and NC Wilmington to also earn at-large bids. Anything less than that and the Pride will be placing their fate in the hands of a committee that has long been fickle to reward Colonial teams with deserving bids.
Air Force: The Falcons just keep on winning. Despite no wins against the top 50 RPI (in fact Air Force has played only one game against the top 50 RPI, losing at Washington nearly two weeks before Thanksgiving), the Falcons have cracked the 40 barrier of the RPI and appear to be a legitimate bubble team. That said, Air Force could ill afford to lose any more games. Their season finale at Colorado State is a must win and making a good showing in the MWC Tournament would bode well for the Falcons in their quest for an at-large bid.
Florida State: The Seminoles seem to be this year's candidate for charity, repeatedly getting much publicity, praise and support for an at-large bid despite just one win against the top 50 RPI (against Maryland). Perhaps it is because without a bid for Florida State the ACC will likely garner no more than four bids and HOW, oh HOW could a conference as mighty and powerful and fabulous as the ACC only earn four bids to the NCAA Tournament ?? The answer might be that the ACC deserves no more than four bids, as almost every middle road ACC team (Clemson, Virginia, Miami, Florida State, Maryland) are all devouring each other game after game. This is a four bid league. PERIOD!!! So unless one of the unchosen few makes a run through Greensboro to win the tournament title, accept it and move one.
UAB: Last season UAB was the first team in recent memory to be awarded with an at-large bid despite no wins against the top 50 RPI. If not for a soft bubble and some weak competition, the Blazers would have been left out of the tournament and enjoying the warmth and hospitality of the NIT. Forward to almost one year later and we find ourselves saying exactly the same thing. The Blazers have a nice record, a solid conference mark and yet have no wins against the top 50 RPI and no win to make their resume seem even remotely attractive. However, this year UAB still has a chance to grab that gold piece in the form of the Memphis Tigers. Should UAB defeat Memphis this week and avoid a letdown against Marshall in their season finale, they will have arguably done more than last year. Given last years weak resume earned them an at-large bid, it would be reasonable to believe this year they would get the same reward.
Bradley: The Braves are yet another enigma. Coming from out of nowhere to get some attention at season's end, Bradley has put themselves in position to possibly steal a bid from the muddled MVC. The Braves do have wins against Western Kentucky, Creighton, Missouri State, Southern Illinois and a season sweep of Northern Iowa. The Braves have also won nine of their last 11 games and finished fifth in the regular season MVC, ahead of Northern Iowa. Bradley faces Creighton in their opening round game of the MVC Tournament. Should they win that game, it would be hard to deny the Braves an at-large bid, despite a spotty resume and a bland non-conference schedule.
Creighton and Missouri State: Both teams finished the regular season 12-6 in the MVC and each team has enough solid wins (along with a top RPI) to get an at-large bid to the dance. Anticipate both of these teams will make the NCAA Tournament regardless of their outcome at the MVC Tournament.
Houston: Just when you thought Houston might make their way back into world of the bubble, the Cougars lose at UTEP to fall to 8-4 in Conference USA. While losing at UTEP is not entirely shameful (after all, UAB got smoked 65-37 at UTEP recently), when combined with several other bad losses on their schedule (at Rice, at home vs. Central Florida), this loss pushes Houston off the bubble and into the land of NIT. Should the Cougars somehow sell their soul and find a way to win at Memphis next weekend, we might be forced to reevaluate this circumstance.
UTEP: The fact people are even considering UTEP as a possible bubble team shows just how weak the bubble is this season. Nice team, nice city, no chance !
Utah State: Same can be said for the Aggies. 9-5 teams sporting two losses to New Mexico State do not get placed on the bubble, even in a year as weak as this one.
We will have more movers and shakers after Sunday's games.
Check out the conference tournament brackets, scores and other features on our sister site bubbleteams.com.
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