Check out updated conference tournament brackets and projections at Bubbleteams.com
More movers and shakers:
More than a few teams saw a change of fortune on Sunday. We will offer timely updates and projections as Sunday's action progresses.
Indiana: Many dropped Indiana from the bubble after their recent string of five straight losses (in fact the Hoosiers had lost six of seven before their win at home against Penn State). The Hoosiers and Mike Davis rebounded from adversity, winning their last two games and setting themselves up nicely for a possible at-large bid. Indiana has a marginal overall record, 15-10 and a spotty RPI (#49 before their win against Michigan State) that should improve. What sets the Hoosiers aside from other bubble teams is their four wins against teams from the top 25 RPI (defeating Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Illinois) and a .500 record in the #1 RPI conference in the NCAA. Indiana needs to win at least one of their remaining two games (at Purdue and at Michigan) and avoid losing their opening round game in the Big ten Tournament. Should Mike Davis and Indiana accomplish both feats, Indiana should have enough of a resume to warrant an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Minnesota: The Gophers loss to Wisconsin drops Minnesota to 5-9 in the Big Ten and just 14-11 overall. With a weak RPI of 67 and a lack of a solid at-large resume, tis' time to put the dreams of a bubble bid to bed for the Gophers this year. Enjoy the NIT boys.
Alabama: The Crimson Tide have extinguished any uncertainty about their deserving an at-large bid with yet another win against a top 25 team. Alabama has a solid 9-5 record in the SEC West and with games against Auburn and Mississippi State remaining, the Tide appear to be cinch to grab an at-large berth in this year's tournament.
Maryland: The Terrapins continue to slide towards an NIT bid, suffering their seventh loss in their last nine games. Maryland now stands 6-8 in the ACC and with just 2 wins against the top 50 RPI, Maryland team will fail to make the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season, unless they would somehow catch fire and inexplicably win the ACC Tournament.
California: The Bears split their weekend series in the state of Washington, still facing the prospect of needing at least one win in their final two home games against USC and UCLA. While California has a weak RPI, they still own an 11-5 conference record. As long as the Bears split their last two games, they would finish 12-6 in the Pac Ten Conference. While a weak RPI and few solid wins hurt the Bears chances of an at-large bid, the NCAA Selection Committee has historically rewarded teams from power conferences with solid conference records like the Bears currently own.
Sunday, February 26, 2006
Bubble Bath
Conference Tournament Brackets are up and available at bubbleteams.com.
Movers and Shakers:
Several teams improved their stock on Saturday and a few lost ground in their quest to capture an elusive at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Here is the breakdown on the best.... and worst Saturday had to offer:
Syracuse: The Orangemen are still in good shape for a bid, as long as they win one of the two remaining games on their schedule. However, Syracuse should be wary of this week's trip to DePaul. The Blue Demons have already played spoiler, upsetting Seton Hall and placing the Pirates in peril of missing the tournament.
Arkansas: The Razorbacks have all but clinched an at-large bid with three solid wins against what should be three tournament teams. Arkansas just needs to win one of their remaining two games (at Georgia and a home date with Mississippi State) to sew up a berth. However, should the 'Backs lose either game and then drop their opener in the SEC Tournament, their inclusion in the dance would once again become suspect.
Michigan: The Wolverines still need one more win to solidify their spot in this year's field. Should Michigan lose at home to Indiana in their Big Ten finale and then lose their opener in the Big Ten Tournament, it would become sketchy to include the Wolverines with what would then be a losing Big Ten record. One more win and you can pencil Michigan in.
Colorado: To bad the Buffaloes can not play the Big 12 Tournament on their home court in Boulder. If that were the case, Colorado would be a solid favorite to march into the NCAA. Unfortunately, Colorado still has one more road game, at Kansas, on their schedule. Given the Buffaloes predilection for losing road games to marginal teams (at Iowa State, at Texas A&M, at Nebraska, at Kansas State), it would be hard to imagine the Buffs winning at Kansas this week. A loss in Lawrence would leave the Buffaloes needing to defeat Iowa State in their season finale just to get to 9-7 in the conference. Now that Texas A&M has tied them in the conference race for fourth place, the Buffaloes' chances of clearing a first round bye in the Big 12 Tournament is in serious jeopardy. Colorado needs to win both games this week to feel safe about a possible at-large bid. Lose either game and the Buffaloes will need to make a serious run in their conference tournament to make it to the NCAA this year.
Southern Illinois: The only MVC team that had a better Saturday than the Salukis was Wichita State (sewing up first place and a #1 seed in the conference tournament). The Salukis rebounded from three straight losses to drop Northern Iowa and grab the #2 seed in this week's MVC Tournament. The Salukis now have a good shot to make it to the tournament semifinals, facing the winner of Illinois State-Evansville in the quarterfinals. Southern Illinois also avoids having to face any of the five possible NCAA quality teams in the tournament until the semifinals. Southern Illinois still has a solid resume and given the struggles of several MVC teams as of late, the Salukis still have a good shot to be rewarded with an at-large bid from the MVC this year.
Northern Iowa: The Panthers looked to be a lock two weeks. Four losses in their last five games, including their last four conference games has turned Northern Iowa into a legitimate bubble team and dropped the Panthers into a tie for fifth place in the MVC. Northern Iowa still has wins against LSU, Iowa, Bucknell, Missouri State and a season sweep of Wichita State on their tournament resume. To be on the safe side, the Panthers REALLY could use a win in the opening round of the MVC Tournament against Missouri State. Should they lose that game, Northern Iowa would be left waiting to see if they are rewarded for a solid start instead of punished for a poor finish?
Virginia: Enough bubble talk. Lose AT Clemson by 26 ??? Not the stuff at-large teams are made of.
NC Wilmington: The Seahawks capture a regular season title and are awarded a #1 seed in the Colonial Tournament. Best to win their opening round game to be safe. Regardless of that outcome, a soft bubble should allow for the NC Wilmington to slide in with an at-large berth from the CAA.
Seton Hall: Has any other team done more damage to their tournament chances this past week than the Pirates? Seton Hall has not only lost three straight games.... the Pirates have lost three straight games to teams from the bottom half of the league (possibly losing to three teams that might not even make the Big East Tournament). The Hall had what was arguably the easiest road to Selection Sunday. Louis Orr and the Pirates have turned their pot of gold into bucket of ........ well, you get the analogy. The Pirates MUST win their last two games to even be reconsidered on the bubble again. Beyond that, it would behoove Seton Hall to make some noise in the Big East Tournament. Otherwise, the Big East will no be getting those elusive nine bids so many are predicting.
Kentucky: The Wildcats have only defeated one SEC team in the current top 50 RPI (Arkansas). They have defeated one SEC team with a winning conference record. In other words, Kentucky has fashioned an 8-6 conference mark with wins against some of the worst teams the SEC has to offer. The bright side of this coin is the reality Kentucky has defeated the team sit was supposed to (hear that Vanderbilt). The problem is now Kentucky has very few solid wins to prop up their tournament resume. The Wildcats have two more chances to make a statement to the selection committee this week, facing a wounded Tennessee in Knoxville and a home finale against Florida. The Wildcats MUST win one of those two games to make their case for a possible at-large bid. Otherwise, should the boys from Lexington lose both games, it would be necessary for UK to make a deep run in the SEC Tournament in order to earn a bid this year.
Arizona: Just win one of their last two games and the Wildcats make the dance yet again.
Texas A&M: Despite the cries and complaints of many a college basketball fan, the Aggies have a serious shot at an at-large bid, should they win their final two games. A win at home against top ranked Texas would give A&M the marquee win they lack. A win at Texas Tech in their season finale would give the Aggies a 10-6 record in the Big 12 and top four seed for the Big 12 Tournament. Although a horrific non-conference schedule will hurt the Aggies chances with the selection committee, a solid conference mark coupled with a strong finish might be just enough to push Texas A&M over the top and into the NCAAs.
Hofstra: It is still rather unfathomable that the Pride (or Flying Dutchmen for those of with a penchant for nostalgia) might be in line for an at-large bid to the dance this year. Typically, the selection committee rewards teams that win regular season titles with at-large bids. Hofstra still only has two wins against the top 50 RP, yet their own ranking is a solid #37. A more unique scenario would be Hofstra making a run through the CAA Tournament and winning the title, thus allowing both George Mason and NC Wilmington to also earn at-large bids. Anything less than that and the Pride will be placing their fate in the hands of a committee that has long been fickle to reward Colonial teams with deserving bids.
Air Force: The Falcons just keep on winning. Despite no wins against the top 50 RPI (in fact Air Force has played only one game against the top 50 RPI, losing at Washington nearly two weeks before Thanksgiving), the Falcons have cracked the 40 barrier of the RPI and appear to be a legitimate bubble team. That said, Air Force could ill afford to lose any more games. Their season finale at Colorado State is a must win and making a good showing in the MWC Tournament would bode well for the Falcons in their quest for an at-large bid.
Florida State: The Seminoles seem to be this year's candidate for charity, repeatedly getting much publicity, praise and support for an at-large bid despite just one win against the top 50 RPI (against Maryland). Perhaps it is because without a bid for Florida State the ACC will likely garner no more than four bids and HOW, oh HOW could a conference as mighty and powerful and fabulous as the ACC only earn four bids to the NCAA Tournament ?? The answer might be that the ACC deserves no more than four bids, as almost every middle road ACC team (Clemson, Virginia, Miami, Florida State, Maryland) are all devouring each other game after game. This is a four bid league. PERIOD!!! So unless one of the unchosen few makes a run through Greensboro to win the tournament title, accept it and move one.
UAB: Last season UAB was the first team in recent memory to be awarded with an at-large bid despite no wins against the top 50 RPI. If not for a soft bubble and some weak competition, the Blazers would have been left out of the tournament and enjoying the warmth and hospitality of the NIT. Forward to almost one year later and we find ourselves saying exactly the same thing. The Blazers have a nice record, a solid conference mark and yet have no wins against the top 50 RPI and no win to make their resume seem even remotely attractive. However, this year UAB still has a chance to grab that gold piece in the form of the Memphis Tigers. Should UAB defeat Memphis this week and avoid a letdown against Marshall in their season finale, they will have arguably done more than last year. Given last years weak resume earned them an at-large bid, it would be reasonable to believe this year they would get the same reward.
Bradley: The Braves are yet another enigma. Coming from out of nowhere to get some attention at season's end, Bradley has put themselves in position to possibly steal a bid from the muddled MVC. The Braves do have wins against Western Kentucky, Creighton, Missouri State, Southern Illinois and a season sweep of Northern Iowa. The Braves have also won nine of their last 11 games and finished fifth in the regular season MVC, ahead of Northern Iowa. Bradley faces Creighton in their opening round game of the MVC Tournament. Should they win that game, it would be hard to deny the Braves an at-large bid, despite a spotty resume and a bland non-conference schedule.
Creighton and Missouri State: Both teams finished the regular season 12-6 in the MVC and each team has enough solid wins (along with a top RPI) to get an at-large bid to the dance. Anticipate both of these teams will make the NCAA Tournament regardless of their outcome at the MVC Tournament.
Houston: Just when you thought Houston might make their way back into world of the bubble, the Cougars lose at UTEP to fall to 8-4 in Conference USA. While losing at UTEP is not entirely shameful (after all, UAB got smoked 65-37 at UTEP recently), when combined with several other bad losses on their schedule (at Rice, at home vs. Central Florida), this loss pushes Houston off the bubble and into the land of NIT. Should the Cougars somehow sell their soul and find a way to win at Memphis next weekend, we might be forced to reevaluate this circumstance.
UTEP: The fact people are even considering UTEP as a possible bubble team shows just how weak the bubble is this season. Nice team, nice city, no chance !
Utah State: Same can be said for the Aggies. 9-5 teams sporting two losses to New Mexico State do not get placed on the bubble, even in a year as weak as this one.
We will have more movers and shakers after Sunday's games.
Check out the conference tournament brackets, scores and other features on our sister site bubbleteams.com.
Movers and Shakers:
Several teams improved their stock on Saturday and a few lost ground in their quest to capture an elusive at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Here is the breakdown on the best.... and worst Saturday had to offer:
Syracuse: The Orangemen are still in good shape for a bid, as long as they win one of the two remaining games on their schedule. However, Syracuse should be wary of this week's trip to DePaul. The Blue Demons have already played spoiler, upsetting Seton Hall and placing the Pirates in peril of missing the tournament.
Arkansas: The Razorbacks have all but clinched an at-large bid with three solid wins against what should be three tournament teams. Arkansas just needs to win one of their remaining two games (at Georgia and a home date with Mississippi State) to sew up a berth. However, should the 'Backs lose either game and then drop their opener in the SEC Tournament, their inclusion in the dance would once again become suspect.
Michigan: The Wolverines still need one more win to solidify their spot in this year's field. Should Michigan lose at home to Indiana in their Big Ten finale and then lose their opener in the Big Ten Tournament, it would become sketchy to include the Wolverines with what would then be a losing Big Ten record. One more win and you can pencil Michigan in.
Colorado: To bad the Buffaloes can not play the Big 12 Tournament on their home court in Boulder. If that were the case, Colorado would be a solid favorite to march into the NCAA. Unfortunately, Colorado still has one more road game, at Kansas, on their schedule. Given the Buffaloes predilection for losing road games to marginal teams (at Iowa State, at Texas A&M, at Nebraska, at Kansas State), it would be hard to imagine the Buffs winning at Kansas this week. A loss in Lawrence would leave the Buffaloes needing to defeat Iowa State in their season finale just to get to 9-7 in the conference. Now that Texas A&M has tied them in the conference race for fourth place, the Buffaloes' chances of clearing a first round bye in the Big 12 Tournament is in serious jeopardy. Colorado needs to win both games this week to feel safe about a possible at-large bid. Lose either game and the Buffaloes will need to make a serious run in their conference tournament to make it to the NCAA this year.
Southern Illinois: The only MVC team that had a better Saturday than the Salukis was Wichita State (sewing up first place and a #1 seed in the conference tournament). The Salukis rebounded from three straight losses to drop Northern Iowa and grab the #2 seed in this week's MVC Tournament. The Salukis now have a good shot to make it to the tournament semifinals, facing the winner of Illinois State-Evansville in the quarterfinals. Southern Illinois also avoids having to face any of the five possible NCAA quality teams in the tournament until the semifinals. Southern Illinois still has a solid resume and given the struggles of several MVC teams as of late, the Salukis still have a good shot to be rewarded with an at-large bid from the MVC this year.
Northern Iowa: The Panthers looked to be a lock two weeks. Four losses in their last five games, including their last four conference games has turned Northern Iowa into a legitimate bubble team and dropped the Panthers into a tie for fifth place in the MVC. Northern Iowa still has wins against LSU, Iowa, Bucknell, Missouri State and a season sweep of Wichita State on their tournament resume. To be on the safe side, the Panthers REALLY could use a win in the opening round of the MVC Tournament against Missouri State. Should they lose that game, Northern Iowa would be left waiting to see if they are rewarded for a solid start instead of punished for a poor finish?
Virginia: Enough bubble talk. Lose AT Clemson by 26 ??? Not the stuff at-large teams are made of.
NC Wilmington: The Seahawks capture a regular season title and are awarded a #1 seed in the Colonial Tournament. Best to win their opening round game to be safe. Regardless of that outcome, a soft bubble should allow for the NC Wilmington to slide in with an at-large berth from the CAA.
Seton Hall: Has any other team done more damage to their tournament chances this past week than the Pirates? Seton Hall has not only lost three straight games.... the Pirates have lost three straight games to teams from the bottom half of the league (possibly losing to three teams that might not even make the Big East Tournament). The Hall had what was arguably the easiest road to Selection Sunday. Louis Orr and the Pirates have turned their pot of gold into bucket of ........ well, you get the analogy. The Pirates MUST win their last two games to even be reconsidered on the bubble again. Beyond that, it would behoove Seton Hall to make some noise in the Big East Tournament. Otherwise, the Big East will no be getting those elusive nine bids so many are predicting.
Kentucky: The Wildcats have only defeated one SEC team in the current top 50 RPI (Arkansas). They have defeated one SEC team with a winning conference record. In other words, Kentucky has fashioned an 8-6 conference mark with wins against some of the worst teams the SEC has to offer. The bright side of this coin is the reality Kentucky has defeated the team sit was supposed to (hear that Vanderbilt). The problem is now Kentucky has very few solid wins to prop up their tournament resume. The Wildcats have two more chances to make a statement to the selection committee this week, facing a wounded Tennessee in Knoxville and a home finale against Florida. The Wildcats MUST win one of those two games to make their case for a possible at-large bid. Otherwise, should the boys from Lexington lose both games, it would be necessary for UK to make a deep run in the SEC Tournament in order to earn a bid this year.
Arizona: Just win one of their last two games and the Wildcats make the dance yet again.
Texas A&M: Despite the cries and complaints of many a college basketball fan, the Aggies have a serious shot at an at-large bid, should they win their final two games. A win at home against top ranked Texas would give A&M the marquee win they lack. A win at Texas Tech in their season finale would give the Aggies a 10-6 record in the Big 12 and top four seed for the Big 12 Tournament. Although a horrific non-conference schedule will hurt the Aggies chances with the selection committee, a solid conference mark coupled with a strong finish might be just enough to push Texas A&M over the top and into the NCAAs.
Hofstra: It is still rather unfathomable that the Pride (or Flying Dutchmen for those of with a penchant for nostalgia) might be in line for an at-large bid to the dance this year. Typically, the selection committee rewards teams that win regular season titles with at-large bids. Hofstra still only has two wins against the top 50 RP, yet their own ranking is a solid #37. A more unique scenario would be Hofstra making a run through the CAA Tournament and winning the title, thus allowing both George Mason and NC Wilmington to also earn at-large bids. Anything less than that and the Pride will be placing their fate in the hands of a committee that has long been fickle to reward Colonial teams with deserving bids.
Air Force: The Falcons just keep on winning. Despite no wins against the top 50 RPI (in fact Air Force has played only one game against the top 50 RPI, losing at Washington nearly two weeks before Thanksgiving), the Falcons have cracked the 40 barrier of the RPI and appear to be a legitimate bubble team. That said, Air Force could ill afford to lose any more games. Their season finale at Colorado State is a must win and making a good showing in the MWC Tournament would bode well for the Falcons in their quest for an at-large bid.
Florida State: The Seminoles seem to be this year's candidate for charity, repeatedly getting much publicity, praise and support for an at-large bid despite just one win against the top 50 RPI (against Maryland). Perhaps it is because without a bid for Florida State the ACC will likely garner no more than four bids and HOW, oh HOW could a conference as mighty and powerful and fabulous as the ACC only earn four bids to the NCAA Tournament ?? The answer might be that the ACC deserves no more than four bids, as almost every middle road ACC team (Clemson, Virginia, Miami, Florida State, Maryland) are all devouring each other game after game. This is a four bid league. PERIOD!!! So unless one of the unchosen few makes a run through Greensboro to win the tournament title, accept it and move one.
UAB: Last season UAB was the first team in recent memory to be awarded with an at-large bid despite no wins against the top 50 RPI. If not for a soft bubble and some weak competition, the Blazers would have been left out of the tournament and enjoying the warmth and hospitality of the NIT. Forward to almost one year later and we find ourselves saying exactly the same thing. The Blazers have a nice record, a solid conference mark and yet have no wins against the top 50 RPI and no win to make their resume seem even remotely attractive. However, this year UAB still has a chance to grab that gold piece in the form of the Memphis Tigers. Should UAB defeat Memphis this week and avoid a letdown against Marshall in their season finale, they will have arguably done more than last year. Given last years weak resume earned them an at-large bid, it would be reasonable to believe this year they would get the same reward.
Bradley: The Braves are yet another enigma. Coming from out of nowhere to get some attention at season's end, Bradley has put themselves in position to possibly steal a bid from the muddled MVC. The Braves do have wins against Western Kentucky, Creighton, Missouri State, Southern Illinois and a season sweep of Northern Iowa. The Braves have also won nine of their last 11 games and finished fifth in the regular season MVC, ahead of Northern Iowa. Bradley faces Creighton in their opening round game of the MVC Tournament. Should they win that game, it would be hard to deny the Braves an at-large bid, despite a spotty resume and a bland non-conference schedule.
Creighton and Missouri State: Both teams finished the regular season 12-6 in the MVC and each team has enough solid wins (along with a top RPI) to get an at-large bid to the dance. Anticipate both of these teams will make the NCAA Tournament regardless of their outcome at the MVC Tournament.
Houston: Just when you thought Houston might make their way back into world of the bubble, the Cougars lose at UTEP to fall to 8-4 in Conference USA. While losing at UTEP is not entirely shameful (after all, UAB got smoked 65-37 at UTEP recently), when combined with several other bad losses on their schedule (at Rice, at home vs. Central Florida), this loss pushes Houston off the bubble and into the land of NIT. Should the Cougars somehow sell their soul and find a way to win at Memphis next weekend, we might be forced to reevaluate this circumstance.
UTEP: The fact people are even considering UTEP as a possible bubble team shows just how weak the bubble is this season. Nice team, nice city, no chance !
Utah State: Same can be said for the Aggies. 9-5 teams sporting two losses to New Mexico State do not get placed on the bubble, even in a year as weak as this one.
We will have more movers and shakers after Sunday's games.
Check out the conference tournament brackets, scores and other features on our sister site bubbleteams.com.
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