Bubble Boys

We will update teams that improve their stock and lose serious ground on this first Saturday of Championship Week. Be sure to check back periodically and check out Bubbleteams.com for updated scores, conference tournament brackets, tournament previews and an updated NCAA Tournament bracket.

Expansions and Contractions:

Winthrop: Winthrop advances to the NCAA Tournament with a 51-50 win over Coastal Carolina. The Eagles Craig Bradshaw scored on a short jumper with 10 seconds left in the game. The Chanticleers had a chance to win the game in the final seconds, but failed to get a shot off. Winthrop advances to their second straight NCAA Tournament.

Cincinnati: The Bearcats continue to follow the pattern of winning big games that has been set forth by numerous other teams during this final week of the regular season. Cincinnati defeated West Virginia to get themselves to .500 in the Big East and set up with a possible at-large invitation to the NCAA Tournament. The fate of the Bearcats will depend on the outcome of several other teams in the conference tournaments, but at least Cincinnati has a chance to continue fighting for what should be the eighth bid out of the Big East. The Bearcats would be wise to add one more win their resume before resting on their laurels and hoping that all they have done thus far this season is enough to advance to the Big Dance.

NC Wilmington: The Seahawks finished off 9 seed Delaware to move forward to the semifinals of the CAA Tournament. NC Wilmington needs to win their semifinal game and advance to the championship game of the conference tournament to have a legitimate claim at an at-large bid. With so many other bubble teams posting big wins this week, this is the Seahawks' only chance to make a statement and get some needed face time.

Texas A&M: The Aggies post their seventh consecutive win, pushing their Big 12 record to 10-6 and their overall record to 20-7. Texas A&M still has a spotty RPI in the high 40s/low 50s, but given their recent win against Texas, their current winning streak and the failure of Colorado to secure what would be the fourth bid from the Big 12, the Aggies have all but sewn up a berth in this years NCAA Tournament. One more win in the Big 12 Tournament would secure an at-large bid for Texas A&M.

Vanderbilt: The Commodores had their chance to pull of another signature upset and put their name in with the bubble elite. Alas, Vanderbilt withered in the final minutes and lost to Tennessee at home, thus ending any chances at a possible at-large bid. Even a run to the SEC title game will not be enough for the Commodores this season.

Wichita State: The Shockers are far from a bubble team, but they do deserve mention because after their loss to Bradley in the MVC semifinals they will be nervously waiting to see their name in the field of 65. Fear not Wichita State, a regular season championship, 24 wins (including 14 in conference) and a top 25 RPI will be enough to get you into the Big Dance this year.

Bradley: The Braves continue their improbable run towards what appears to be either an automatic or at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. A solid upset of number 1 seed Wichita State has Bradley pushing towards the head of the class of the slew of bubble teams out of the MVC. The Bradley win did hurt Creighton, because now the Braves have a chance to play Southern Illinois for the automatic bid out of the MVC. The Creighton Blue Jays are behind Northern Iowa, Missouri State and Wichita State in the bubble pecking order. At this point, they have to hope Northern Iowa wins the MVC Tournament and they somehow earn an unlikely fifth bid out of the MVC.

Indiana: Gee, Now do you think the Hoosiers deserve an NCAA at-large bid ? After a midseason swoon that indirectly led to head coach Mike Davis' departure, the Hoosiers have righted the ship and are riding a four game winning streak. Indiana is a lock to make the field of 65. A fifth place finish in the Big Ten, nine Big Ten wins, five wins against the top 30 RPI and six wins against the top 50 RPI means head coach Mike Davis will end his tenure at Indiana with an NCAA bid.

Michigan: The Wolverines should be safe, but just to be certain, the maize and blue would not want to flame out in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. Michigan has done just enough to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament. While losing six of their last nine games is not a good way for the Wolverines to make a statement to the NCAA Selection Committee, three wins against the top 20 RPI and ten wins against the top 100 RPI along with a top 30 RPI should be just enough to get Michigan in.... just be sure to win that first round game in the Big ten Tournament.

Air Force: Eh, the Falcons win again... and yet again it is against a marginal MWC team. Air Force has a lot of wins, 22 to be exact, and they only have 5 losses. Air Force plays in a lower level major conference and they got in two years ago with the same number of conference wins, yet it just does not seem fathomable that the Falcons would be rewarded with an at-large bid over so many other teams that have scored BIG upset wins this past week. The best bet for the Falcons is to win the MWC championship. Anything else, and there might be some sadness in Colorado Springs on Selection Sunday.

Murray State: The Racers become the fourth team to punch a ticket to the 2006 NCAA Tournament.

Alabama: The Crimson Tide lost at Mississippi State to drop to 17-11 and 10-6 in the SEC. Not the smartest move given so many other teams got key wins this week, but when taken into account, it should still not cost the Tide an at-large bid.

Northern Iowa: The Panthers lost a heartbreaker to Southern Illinois. It is a good thing Northern Iowa has a solid non-conference resume to hang their hat on, because their play in the past two weeks has been suspect. Despite the loss, the Panthers are still a solid choice to come out of the MVC for an at-large bid.

Southern Illinois: The Salukis face the Bradley Braves for the MVC Championship. In what must be described as unexpected, the two teams that sat at the bottom of the pile of potential bubble teams from the MVC have each played their way to a possible MVC Tournament Championship. Southern Illinois should push their way back into the top 40 RPI and with another solid win, erase the bad memories of recent losses in the MVC. The Salukis also own two wins over Northern Iowa in the past week and wins against Kent State, Wichita State, Bradley and a season sweep of Creighton in the regular season. The real loser was the Creighton Blue Jays, who have likely dropped to the sixth choice as a bubble teams out of the MVC.

George Mason: The Patriots barely beat 10 seed Georgia State in the CAA quarterfinals. As more and more bubble teams post big wins, the bubble becomes smaller and smaller for teams like the Patriots. Even if George Mason makes the CAA title game, there might not be enough room for them in this year's tournament should they lose.

California: The Bears would be golden in any other year than this one. Just what do you do with a team from a Big 6 conference that has won 18 games and 12 in conference. The answer to that question is usually automatic; you put them in the dance. However, this year is quite a different story. The Pac Ten has struggled, their RPI rating is down and there is some thought that even 12 wins, including wins over UCLA, Washington and Arizona, is not enough. What will most affect the Bears are the happenings from other one-bid conferences. The Bears need to beat USC in the first round of the Pac Ten Tournament and possibly make he tournament finals to make a final stab at an at-large bid. Anything less than that and they are taking their chances with what can be a fickle selection committee.

UAB: The Blazers took care of business winning their 22nd game overall and their 12th in conference. UAB just needs to avoid bad losses (meaning make the Conference USA semifinals) and they should grab another at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Colorado: The Buffaloes barely beat Iowa State in heir season finale. While other bubble teams have been grabbing marquee wins and signature upsets, the Buffaloes have been bumbling and stumbling along. Colorado now sits behind Texas A&M in the race for another bid out of the Big 12. The Buffaloes have the chance to steal that bid away from the Aggies. Colorado is the 5 seed in the Big 12 Conference championship and Texas A&M is the 4 seed. If the Buffs can win their first round game they can possibly steal away an at-large bid from Texas A&M. Even if the Buffs win their first round game, they will still need to beat the Aggies to get back into the field of 65.