Sunday, March 05, 2006

Bubble Wrap

We will update teams that improve their stock and lose serious ground as Championship Week continues. Check back periodically for updates and check out Bubbleteams.com for updated scores, conference tournament brackets, tournament previews and an updated NCAA Tournament bracket.

Kentucky: The Wildcats could afford this loss being they have a 9-7 SEC record and 19 wins overall. It would be wise for Kentucky to win their opening round game in the SEC Tournament against Mississippi. The selection committee never looks upon a bad loss at this point of the season favorably.

Syracuse: The Orangemen will still be thought of as deserving when they miss this year's NCAA Tournament. Syracuse played a very difficult schedule, yet the Orange did not win nearly enough big games and three straight losses, including a humiliating blowout at DePaul will leave Syracuse at best an NIT bid this season. Not only did the Orange NOT post a marquee win, they had a horrific loss. With a losing record in the Big East, Syracuse just does not have enough to qualify for an at-large invitation to this year's dance.

Florida State: The Seminoles followed their upset of Duke with a win at Miami. While a win over Miami is not a marquee win, it does give the Seminoles a winning record and a 5 seed in the ACC and, more importantly, it helps Florida State avoid a bad loss and sets them up for a bid to the NCAA Tournament. The only thing that would put that in jeopardy is a first round loss to Wake Forest in the ACC Tournament. Should the Seminoles lose that game, once again there would be talk of FSU and the bubble.

Davidson: The Wildcats make amends for last season's upset loss in the Southern semifinals with a blowout win over Chattanooga. Arkansas: The Razorbacks eliminate any doubt whether they deserve an NCAA bid with their 10th SEC win and their 21st win overall. Regardless of what happens in the SEC Tournament, Arkansas will be dancing.

Bradley: The Braves magical run ends just short of an automatic NCAA bid. Now Bradley has to hope that seven wins in their last 8 games, a top 30 RPI and a solid resume will be enough to impress the committee. Bradley will likely be either the third or fourth team selected out of the MVC (behind automatic qualifier Southern Illinois, regular season champion Wichita State and possibly Northern Iowa).

Southern Illinois: The Salukis completed their run to a conference championship with a convincing 13 point win over the Bradley Braves and in the process earned the automatic bid from the Missouri Valley Conference.

George Mason: The Patriots have solid resume- conference champions of the CAA, 23 wins (including 15 wins in the #10 RPI conference), a top 25 RPI and a 16-3 record in their last 19 games. Yet the Patriots have just 2 wins against the top 50 RPI (at Wichita State and at home vs. NC Wilmington. The Patriots have just the one solid non-conference win to present to the committee. NC Wilmington and Hofstra meet for the conference title and if a second team is selected from the CAA it is likely to be the loser of the championship game. That leaves the Patriots the third team out of the CAA, a conference that has not earned more than one bid since 1986 (Navy earned the automatic bid and Richmond was an at-large qualifier). The play of several bubble teams throughout this week will give more insight about the fate of George Mason.

Hofstra: The Pride find themselves in much the same circumstance as the other two CAA teams, except they still have the chance to earn the automatic bid from the league in Monday's championship game. Hofstra now has 23 wins (including two against George Mason in the last 10 days) and a spot in the CAA title game. It would be best for Hofstra to win the conference title and leave the committee to decide between George Mason and NC Wilmington. Should the Pride lose, their weak non-conference schedule with just one win against a top 100 RPI team might spell doom for their chances at an at-large bid.

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