Bubblicious !!

Thursday and Friday have seen some additional shifts amongst the teams on the bubble, so be sure to visit Bubbleteams.com to check out updated scores and schedules.

Expansion and contraction:

First one in !

The Penn Quakers clinched first place in the Ivy League with a 57-55 win at Yale. The Quakers earn the automatic berth and earn the first bid to the 2006 NCAA Tournament.

Northern Iowa: Just when everyone was ready to count out the Panthers, they go and defeat fellow bubble team and conference foe Missouri State to advance to the conference semifinals in the MVC. It would be unlikely the committee would now keep out the Panthers, despite a late season swoon. A top 25 RPI, a nice slate of solid wins (LSU, Wichita State twice, Iowa) and this latest win should be just enough to bump the Panthers over the top and push them into the NCAA Tournament.

Missouri State: What do you tell a team that has a top 20 RPI, a 20-8 overall record (12-6 in conference) with 4 wins against the top 50 RPI after they lose during Championship Week? Well, if that team were from a Big 6 power conference, you would congratulate them on what would likely be a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. Now, if that team is from the Missouri Valley Conference, you are much more likely to say they do not deserve a bid as much as some 8-8 team from the Big East of the ACC simply because of the teams they played. This is the fate that the Bears face after their loss to Northern Iowa in the MVC quarterfinals. Everything statistical and numerical would point to Missouri State getting an at-large bid to the Big Dance, but this year.... with the craziness that has occurred just in the last week?? Who knows what the future will bring the Bears come Selection Sunday?

Seton Hall: There was much consternation over the Pirates after they had lost three straight games... all to teams at the bottom of the Big East. It had looked grim for the Pirates facing two games against Cincinnati and Pitt. After a win against Cincinnati, Seton Hall looked in better shape, if they could just somehow win at Pitt. Lo and behold, the Hall did what teams who deserve an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament are supposed to do. They won a BIG game, defeating the Panthers at Pitt and all but locked up an at-large bid to the Big Dance. Seton Hall still has a shaky RPI and a few bad losses, but with wins at NC State, Pitt and at home against WVU and a 5-4 record against the top 50 RPI, it would be unfathomable for the Selection Committee to hold out the Hall now, especially after the recent collapses of Cincinnati and Syracuse. Welcome to the field of 65 Seton Hall..... you definitely earned it.

Bradley: The Braves have muddied the waters of the MVC after their win against Creighton in the conference quarterfinals. The Braves continued their hot streak, winning their sixth game in a row and their tenth in their last 12 games. Bradley still has a spotty resume, with no real marquee non-conference wins; yet it is getting harder and harder to leave the Braves out of the NCAA Tournament. The question is..... who do they replace?

Creighton: Creighton looked to be solid for an at-large bid.... that is until the lost their last two games (and four of their last six), including a loss in the MVC quarterfinals against Bradley. Creighton looked all but in a week ago, but despite a 28 RPI and a 6-6 record vs the top 50 RPI, it is questionable whether the Blue Jays have done enough in the committee's eyes to earn an at-large bid. Much will depend on the happenings across the nation over the next ten days. Should conference favorites like George Mason and George Washington lose in their conference tournament, it will make it even harder and harder to justify the inclusion of Creighton in this year's Big Dance.

Southern Illinois: The Salukis made life on the bubble even more challenging after their quarterfinal win against lowly Evansville. Southern Illinois will earn few points for this victory (and they may even drop a few spots in the RPI), yet they are still alive in the race for the automatic bid out of the MVC and they are fighting with several fellow bubble brethren from their own conference. It is hard to tell just what the Selection Committee would do with this team. Should they make the conference finals, it might be enough to push them over the top of other bubble teams, like Creighton and the loser of Northern Iowa and Missouri State.

Arizona: Hah, like the committee would leave out the Wildcats. Despite an 18-10 record, Arizona is 11-6 in the Pac Ten and is the #19 RPI team in all the land. Arizona is in, regardless of their last two games.

California: The Bears had their chance, blowing a double-digit lead in the second half to UCLA at home. California must win their season finale against USC and hope their 12-6 conference record stands for more than a mediocre RPI, a lack of a solid non-conference win and several questionable losses (Oregon State and Arizona State). The Bears need two more wins to solidify their standing with the Selection Committee.

Syracuse: The Orangemen may have suffered the WORST loss of ANY team in the past twenty years looking to play their way off the bubble and into the NCAA Tournament. Margin of victory is usually not a consideration of whether a team is included or left out of the Big Dance, yet how can the NCAA Selection Committee ignore a 39 point thrashing by a 12-14 team that is only 5-10 in their own conference. Amazingly Syracuse can still reverse the damage b winning at home against Villanova this weekend. Syracuse still would likely need at least one win in the Big East Tournament, although a win against the Wildcats would push the Orange to 20 wins and likely raise their RPI into the low 20s. There has never been an at-large team with an RPI better than 33 left out of the tournament (15-12 Oklahoma had a #33 RPI in 1994 and was not invited). What is even more disturbing is how is appeared the Syracuse players had no interest in the outcome of their game. In the end that may be the most damaging result of their HUGE loss to DePaul.

UAB: One BIG is usually not enough to propel a bubble team into the Big Dance. A team still needs to win their remaining games (or at least a majority of them) to make a solid case for an at-large bid. That being said, defeating the #3 team in the nation and ending a 15 game winning streak is a pretty damn good start! UAB just needs to avoid the hangover that often follows a big win, like theirs over Memphis. The Blazers MUST NOT lose to Marshall this weekend. Their win against the Herd should lock them either a 2 or 3 seed in the conference tournament. As long as they make the conference semifinals, UAB should be golden for another return trip to the NCAA Tournament this season.