Sunday, March 12, 2006

Comparisons to other Brackets

Here is where we like to see how we stacked up to the other bracketologists and how well our selections did against a varying selection of selections:

Bubbleteams:

Number of teams selected correctly: 62/65 Correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Seton Hall, Utah State
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Hofstra, Cincinnati
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 28/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 51/65

Bracketology 101:

Number of teams selected correctly: 62/65 Correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, George Mason, Utah State
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Hofstra, Cincinnati
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 31/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 50/65

Joe Lunardi at ESPN Bracketology:

Number of teams selected correctly: 63/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State
Teams projected that missed: Florida State, Cincinnati
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 30/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 49/65

Bracketography:

Number of teams selected correctly: 62/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State, George Mason
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Cincinnati, Michigan
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 30/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 47/65

Bracket Board:

Number of teams selected correctly: 62/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State, George Mason
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Cincinnati, Hofstra
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 27/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 49/65

NCAA Hoops Digest:

Number of teams selected correctly: 63/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Cincinnati
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 29/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 49/65

JCI Rankings:

Number of teams selected correctly: 59/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State, Alabama, George Mason, Arizona, UAB, California
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Cincinnati, Florida State, Michigan, Hofstra, Maryland
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 24/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 41/65

Gregg Doyel at CSB Sportsline:

Number of teams selected correctly: 63/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State
Teams projected that missed: Hofstra, Cincinnati
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 28/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 48/65

Jerry Palm at collegerpi.com:

Number of teams selected correctly: 62/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State, George Mason
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Cincinnati, Creighton
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 23/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 45/65

Coop's Bracketmatology (Bracket Racket):

Number of teams selected correctly: 63/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Cincinnati
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 29/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 51/65


Bracket Project:

Number of teams selected correctly: 62/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State, George Mason
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Cincinnati, Hofstra
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 29/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 49/65

College Hoops Net March Madness:

Number of teams selected correctly: 62/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State, George Mason
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Cincinnati, Hofstra
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 31/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 50/65

Bracket Predictions:

Number of teams selected correctly: 62/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State, Seton Hall
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Cincinnati, Michigan
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 29/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 45/65

Schmolik 64:

Number of teams selected correctly: 62/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State, Seton Hall
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Creighton, Hofstra
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 29/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 49/65

Michael Lazarus at Foxsports:

Number of teams selected correctly: 62/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State, George Mason
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Cincinnati, Hofstra
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 28/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 51/65

Howard Salswasser:

Number of teams selected correctly: 62/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State, George Mason
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Cincinnati, Michigan
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 23/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 42/65

Drew Barnette at Draft Express:

Number of teams selected correctly: 62/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State, George Mason
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Cincinnati, Hofstra
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 23/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 45/65

Federal Review:

Number of teams selected correctly: 61/65 correct
Teams Missed: Indiana, Alabama, California, Seton Hall
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Hofstra, St. Joseph's, Florida State
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 13/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 34/65

Warren Nolan's:

Number of teams selected correctly: 63/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Cincinnati
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 30/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 48/65

MAG NCAA Projections:

Number of teams selected correctly: 62/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State, George Mason
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Cincinnati, Michigan
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 31/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 49/65

MRI Sports:

Number of teams selected correctly: 57/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State, WVU, California, Marquette, Alabama, Seton Hall, Indiana
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Maryland, Michigan, Florida State, Western Kentucky
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 13/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 35/65

USA Today's Malcolm Moran:

Number of teams selected correctly: 61/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State, George Mason, Seton Hall
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Hofstra, Michigan, Florida State
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 25/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 43/65

CNN/SI Stewart Mandel:

Number of teams selected correctly: 62/65 correct
Teams Missed: Air Force, Utah State, George Mason
Teams projected that missed: Missouri State, Cincinnati, Creighton
Numbers of teams seeded correctly: 23/65
Number of teams seeded within one line of true seed: 48/65

Overall we feel we did poorly this year. Despite what many peiple perceive as an odd and unusual bracket by the NCAA Selection Committee, we still strive to do better. We can take solace in being the best (along with Michael Lazarus of Fox Sports and Coop at Bracketamology) at projecting the bracket within one correct seed. That is still not up to our standards and we know we can do better.

Check back during the week for updates, brackets and projections for both the NCAA Tournament and the NIT Tournament (I can already assure you we will be taking Tuesday night off to visit Penn State for an NIT game).

Enjoy the tournament and good luck.

7 comments:

Bracketology 101 said...

We got 31 seeds exactly right.

Dave Jackson said...

Are these predictions that bad or can we legitimately say that Cincinnati and Missouri State got jobbed in favor of Air Force and Utah State?

Bubbleteams said...

Corrections have been made.

Thanks for the oversight.

Bubbleteams said...

Dave,

I would not necessarily say that either Missouri State or Cincinnati got jobbed, both teams had the chance to make their case for inclusion in the NCAA Tournament and missed out by losing in the first round of their conference tournament.

What is surprising and contradictory to myself and many others is the contradictory qualifications and standards the Selection Committee states for teams to receive an at-large bid.

They want teams to play non-conference schedules against high RPI teams and quality programs and they value wins by teams against high RPI competition. In addition, they have historically looked down upon teams that have "bad losses" to teams outside the top 100 RPI.

I question the Selection Committee when they pass over a team, like Cincinnati, that has 4 wins against the top 50 RPI and 11 wins against the top 100 RPI for a team like Air Force that has no wins against the top 50 RPI and only 5 wins against the top 100 RPI.

Furthermore, look at Utah State; a team with 15 of their 22 wins against teams rated 100 or worse in the top 100 RPI (Air Force is even worse with 17 of 22 wins against the top 100 RPI).

I can almost justify Utah State as a reach, but when Air Force lost in the quarterfinals of their conference tournament to 12-17 Wyoming, what kind of message does that send? It almost seems as though the Selection Committee is bending over backwards to favor mid-majors such as the Falcons and Aggies because they finished second in conferences that barely made the top 10 in conference RPI.

.... and no, I do not think our predictions were bad, most every person out there trying to predict the bracket just got blindsided by a Selection Committee that did something never done before in the history of Tournament Selection.

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