Conference Tournament Previews 3/08/06-(ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, SWAC, WAC)

We are continuing to post the conference tournament previews from our other website here.

Visit Bubbleteams.com to view the other conference tournament previews and updated conference tournament brackets.

ACC:

At Greensboro Coliseum
Greensboro, N.C.

FIRST ROUND

Thursday, March 9
Game 1: No. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 Clemson, noon
Game 2: No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 12 Wake Forest, 2:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 7 Virginia vs. No. 10 Virginia Tech, 7 p.m. (ESPN)
Game 4: No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 11 Georgia Tech, 9:30 p.m.

QUARTERFINALS

Friday, March 10
Game 5: No. 1 Duke vs. Game 1 winner, noon (ESPN2)
Game 6: No. 4 N.C. State vs. Game 2 winner, 2 p.m. (ESPN2)
Game 7: No. 2 North Carolina vs. Game 3 winner, 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
Game 8: No. 3 Boston College vs. Game 4 winner, 9 p.m. (ESPN2)

SEMIFINALS

Saturday, March 11
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 1:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)

CHAMPIONSHIP

Sunday, March 12
Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, 1 p.m. (ESPN)

Recap: The ACC was dominated for much of the season by Duke, yet as the conference play came to a close, the North Carolina Tar Heels began to flex their might and a late season win at Duke has put the strength of the Blue Devils in question. Duke finished the regular season with a 2 game cushion over North Carolina and until the last week of the season, Duke was undefeated in league play. North Carolina started the season with a struggle at home against tiny Gardner-Webb, beating the small school from Boiling Spring NC by just one point in their season opener. The Tar Heels made up for the loss of much of the talent on last season's championship team with a class of fantastic freshman and some unheralded upperclassmen. North Carolina finished the regular season 8-2 on the road, almost unheard of with such a young team; scoring victories at Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina State and Maryland. The only place the Tar Heels seemed to have trouble winning was at home, where the Heels were still 13-4. Boston College had a rough start to their inaugural ACC season, losing their first three games. By the end of the season, the Eagles had turned things around, winning eleven of their last 13 ACC games to finish second in the league. North Carolina State had the opposite fortune by season's end. The Wolfpack lost their last three ACC games to finish the season 10-6 in conference, good for fourth place. Many teams struggled within the ACC campaign including Maryland (hampered by the loss of senior guard Chris McCray), Virginia (improved, yet still struggling to learn how to win), Clemson (started the season 10-0 and finished 7-11), Georgia Tech (with just four wins in the ACC this season) and Wake Forest (inexplicably in last place with just 2 ACC wins on the season).

Favorite: Duke enters the ACC Tournament with 27 wins and a solid lock on a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. Yet all is not well in Durham, especially after two straight losses. The Blue Devils bounced back from a similar situation last season to take the ACC title (after UNC was upset by Georgia Tech) and perhaps the same will occur here. We like North Carolina as the favorite to win the ACC title. No team in the ACC is playing better than the Heels, undefeated since a home loss to Duke in early February and riding a six-game road winning streak. In fact, the Heels only lost one road game during the entire ACC season, a feat even last year's NCAA Championship team could not accomplish. The Heels will be tested in the semifinals by Boston College (if the Eagles get past the winner of Maryland/Georgia Tech). Should UNC make their way to the final, we like their chances in a possible rematch with Duke.

Darkhorse: There are popular choices amongst the 10 teams in the ACC Tournament not named Duke or North Carolina as darkhorses, i.e. Maryland or NC State. However, we like the BC Eagles as a possible darkhorse. Boston College dominated the Tar Heels at North Carolina and was the last team not named Duke to defeat UNC this season. Boston College plays too many games close to the vest, yet with their size and guard play, they have a solid chance to upset the favored Heels.

Big Ten:

At Conseco Fieldhouse
Indianapolis

FIRST ROUND

Thursday, March 9
Game 1: No. 8 Penn State vs. No. 9 Northwestern, 12 p.m. (ESPN2)
Game 2: No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 10 Minnesota, 2 p.m. (ESPN2)
Game 3: No. 6 Michigan State vs. No. 11 Purdue, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN2)

QUARTERFINALS

Friday, March 10
Game 4: No. 1 Ohio State vs. Game 1 winner, 12 p.m. (ESPN)
Game 5: No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 5 Indiana, 2 p.m. (ESPN)
Game 6: No. 2 Iowa vs. Game 2 winner, 6:40 p.m.
Game 7: No. 3 Illinois vs. Game 3 winner, 9:10 p.m.

SEMIFINALS

Saturday, March 11
Game 8: Game 4 winner vs. Game 5 winner, 1:40 p.m.
Game 9: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 winner, 4:05 p.m.

CHAMPIONSHIP

Sunday, March 12
Game 10: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, 3:30 p.m.


Recap: The Big Ten had a solid season with three teams winning more than 20 games and six teams winning 18 or more games. Ohio State surged ahead of a tight pack of teams to win the league title by one game over second place Iowa and Illinois. The Buckeyes were helped by a league leading five wins away from home, second in the Big Ten to only Illinois. Ohio State and Illinois ended the season much like they started 2005. The Buckeyes won their first 11 games (before losing at Indiana) and Illinois won their first 15 games (before losing their first game at Iowa). Iowa might have won the Big Ten if they had been able to find just one more win on the road. The Hawkeyes won every conference home game, yet just won just three road games in the Big Ten. The flip side to the success of these three Big Ten teams was the struggle of many more. Wisconsin started the conference season 4-0, and then lost five of their next six games and limped to a 9-7 Big Ten record. Indiana suffered much the same ignominy, starting their Big Ten season 4-1, losing 6 of their next 7 conference games (and a home game to Connecticut) and their head coach, before turning their season around with four straight wins heading into the conference tournament. Michigan State never quite lived up to pre-season expectations and hype, losing five of their last seven games, finishing 8-8 in the conference. The Spartans tied the Michigan Wolverines, who were also plagued by inconsistency. The most consistently inconsistent team was Penn State. The Nittany Lions won as many road games as home games and yet found a way to end Illinois' 33 game home winning streak. The Lions, plagued by a lack of size, guard play and leadership, somehow found their way to six conference wins. Penn State actually finished ahead of Minnesota, Northwestern and Purdue. Matt Painter found his first as Gene Keady's replacement a struggle, yet was able to score upsets of Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota at home.

Favorite: Ohio State and Illinois are playing the best basketball of any two Big Ten teams, as the tournament gets under way. The Buckeyes have won nine of their last ten games (including wins at Michigan and Michigan State). The Illini have won five of their last six games and are looking to avenge a loss in their sole game against Ohio State this season. Waiting in the wings is Iowa, a surprising 2 seed in the Big ten Tournament. The Hawkeyes are hampered by their inability to win on the road in Big Ten play (3-5 this season, with their only wins coming at Penn State, Indiana and Purdue). Should the Hawkeyes and Illini meet, we like Illinois' chances.

Darkhorse: Michigan State is a popular pick as a darkhorse and if we were swayed by their abundance of talent, we might pick them to make some noise in the Big Ten Tournament. The problem is the Spartans defense is some of the worst in the NCAA and the loss of Matt Trannon (amazingly !!) has hurt their depth. Michigan State will make a great second round opponent for Illinois, but we doubt they will make a deep tournament run. We like the chances of the Michigan Wolverines as our darkhorse. Michigan gets a good draw, having to beat Minnesota (a team they routed twice during the regular season) and then the opportunity to play the solid, yet overseeded Iowa Hawkeyes. The horrific loss Michigan took at Iowa earlier this year is troubling, yet the Hawkeyes are a much different team away from Iowa City. Should the Wolverines get past the quarterfinals, they would likely face either Illinois (a team they played well in both games this season) or Michigan State. Given the Spartans spotty play and poor defense, we like Michigan's chances.

Big 12:

At American Airlines Center
Dallas

FIRST ROUND

Thursday, March 9
Game 1: No. 8 Texas Tech vs. No. 9 Kansas State, 12:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
Game 2: No. 5 Colorado vs. No. 12 Baylor, 3 p.m. (ESPNU)
Game 3: No. 7 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Iowa State, 7 p.m. (ESPNU)
Game 4: No. 6 Nebraska vs. No. 11 Missouri, 9:30 p.m. (ESPN2)

QUARTERFINALS

Friday, March 10
Game 5: No. 1 Texas vs. Game 1 winner, 12:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
Game 6: No. 4 Texas A&M vs. Game 2 winner, 3 p.m. (ESPNU)
Game 7: No. 2 Kansas vs. Game 3 winner, 7 p.m. (ESPNU)
Game 8: No. 3 Oklahoma vs. Game 4 winner, 9:30 p.m. (ESPNU)

SEMIFINALS

Saturday, March 11
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 2 p.m. (ESPN2)
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, 4:20 p.m. (ESPN2)

CHAMPIONSHIP

Sunday, March 12
Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, 3 p.m. (ESPN)

Recap: The Big 12 had four teams finish with 20 or more wins this season. However, only five teams finished with a winning conference record. Texas eked out a tie for the regular season conference title with a home win against Oklahoma in the season finale. The Longhorns overcame a difficult start that saw them lose by a big margin in back-to-back games to Duke and Tennessee. Kansas tied Texas for the conference title after starting the season 3-4. The Jayhawks won 19 of their next 22 games, including a mid-season winning streak of 22 in a row, to finish 22-7 overall. Oklahoma won four straight one-point games at season's end to help them to a third place finish. The Sooners finished just ahead of the league's hottest team, Texas A&M. The Aggies enter the conference tournament on a 7 game winning streak. Texas A&M was floundering at 3-6 in conference before they found their winning ways in early February. Colorado has been the league's most inconsistent team (or consistent, depending on your point of view). The Buffaloes lost just one conference home game, while winning only two conference road games, on their way to a 9-7 league record. A number of league teams struggled to finish after solid starts. Nebraska started the season 12-3 only to finish 5-9. Kansas State (12-4 to start and 3-8 to finish), Oklahoma State (12-5 to start and 4-9 to finish), and Iowa State (10-3 to start and 5-10 to finish) also experienced the same struggles at season's end. Missouri suffered through a seven game losing streak at mid-season that caused head coach Quin Snyder to resign. The Tigers only won two of their last 12 games. Baylor did not win their first game until February 1st, when they upset Kansas State at home. The Bears also did not play their first game until January 11 due to NCAA sanctions.

Favorite: Texas and Kansas enter the league tournament playing the best basketball of any team in the Big 12. The Longhorns have been undone by several losses to marginal conference teams, yet when Texas needed to win a big game, they found a way to pull through. Kansas found hit their winning stride by mid-January. The Jayhawks beat every conference team with a worse record during their winning stretch. The only game Kansas was unable to win was at Texas, losing handily in late February. The Jayhawks won six road games during the conference campaign, best in all the Big 12. The Jayhawks proved they are capable of beating the teams seeded 4-12 during the season. The Jayhawks trouble came against the one team that was above them in the standings. Kansas should be able to roll through their half of the bracket to the semifinals where they will likely face Oklahoma. That is where Kansas might yet again experience some difficulty against squads that provide better competition. Texas is pushing towards a high seed in the NCAA Tournament and this year the conference tournament is being played in their own backyard in Dallas, Texas. The Longhorns have traditionally not received big support from their own fans (unless they are playing a big game). Texas has the advantage of playing their half of the bracket against five teams they defeated during the season. That should be good enough to get Texas to the title game, where they are likely to meet either Oklahoma or Kansas, two teams they beat handily at home.

Darkhorse: It is hard to find a darkhorse from this league, given the difficulty almost every team seeded 5-12 has had either winning games away from home, or just winning games the last half of the season. Oklahoma State, perhaps buoyed by the loss of their head coach, Eddie Sutton, is one of the few teams seeded in the bottom half of the bracket that has found a way to win big games at season's end. The Cowboys have won three of their last five games (including in that streak is a one-point loss in the final seconds at Oklahoma). The Cowboys have the misfortune to face the Kansas Jayhawks in the second round. Kansas dominated Oklahoma State during the regular season, defeating the Cowboys by 15 in Stillwater. Nebraska enters the tournament having lost three in a row and six of their last 8 games. We like their draw against struggling Missouri and then Oklahoma, yet how can anyone have much faith in a team that struggled so mightily to end the season. Given the makeup of the bracket, it is hard to find almost any other team that can pull of the few upsets it takes to be a darkhorse.

SEC:

At The Gaylord Entertainment Center
Nashville, Tenn.

FIRST ROUND

Thursday, March 9
Game 1: E5 South Carolina vs. W4 Mississippi State, 1 p.m.
Game 2: W6 Ole Miss vs. E3 Kentucky, 3:15 p.m.
Game 3: W5 Auburn vs. E4 Vanderbilt, 7:30 p.m.
Game 4: E6 Georgia vs. W3 Arkansas, 9:45 p.m.

QUARTERFINALS

Friday, March 10
Game 5: E1 Tennessee vs. Game 1 winner, 1 p.m.
Game 6: W2 Alabama vs. Game 2 winner, 3:15 p.m.
Game 7: W1 LSU vs. Game 3 winner, 7:30 p.m.
Game 8: E2 Florida vs. Game 4 winner, 9:45 p.m.

SEMIFINALS

Saturday, March 11
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 1 p.m.
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, 3:15 p.m.

CHAMPIONSHIP

Sunday, March 12
Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, 1 p.m.

Recap: The SEC was full of surprises as the season unfolded. Tennessee and LSU won each division with ease, although Tennessee needed to win two close games against Florida to solidify their hold on the top spot in the east. The Volunteers started the season 11-1 and won another 8 games in a row before losing three of their last five to finish the season 12-4 in conference. The LSU Tigers were even more dominant in the West, losing just two games in conference (at Alabama and at Florida). The Tigers suffered through a frustrating non-conference campaign, losing five games by a total of 11 points. LSU won the West by four games over pre-season favorite Alabama and surging Arkansas. The Crimson Tide turned around a 7-5 non-conference record with a solid showing in the SEC. Arkansas enters the SEC Tournament as the hottest team in the league, riding a five game winning streak. The Razorbacks have scored wins against Alabama, Florida and Tennessee in that streak. Florida started the season 17-0 and found some difficulty in conference play, losing twice to Tennessee and South Carolina. Kentucky might be the most talked about team as the SEC Tournament starts play.... and not because of their stellar play. Kentucky, in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament, plays Mississippi in the first round of the SEC Tournament (a date on which the Wildcats are not used to playing). The Rebels will be searching for a new coach after dismissing head coach Rod Barnes at the end of the season.

Favorite: LSU and Tennessee enter the tournament as top seeds, yet LSU is playing the best basketball of anyone in the SEC (except maybe Arkansas). The Tigers have won 14 of their last 16 games and appear to be on a roll towards the NCAA Tournament. LSU would have to face Florida (one of two teams to beat the Tigers) or possibly Arkansas in the semifinals. The bracket does provide a challenge to the Tigers. On the other side, Tennessee would face struggling South Carolina or Mississippi State in the quarterfinals and either Kentucky or Alabama in the semifinals. Both teams were able to score an upset of the top seeded Volunteers in the weeks leading up to the SEC Tournament. Both teams are favorites, yet we are uneasy about their chances to take the SEC Tournament title.

Darkhorse: Arkansas is on a roll as they enter the SEC Tournament. While it is unlikely the Razorbacks will win four straight to take the title, we like their chances to make some noise in the tournament. Arkansas has won the games they are supposed to win and home wins against Alabama and Florida seemed to give this squad the confidence they needed to beat Tennessee on the road. Arkansas is capable of making the semifinals, where they are likely to face LSU. Unfortunately, the Tigers beat the Razorbacks twice this season, so we will head to the opposite side of the bracket for our darkhorse. The Alabama Crimson Tide is the only team in the SEC Tournament to have at least one win against the top four seeds from both sides of the bracket. The Tide finished the regular season 4-2 against the eastern half of the conference (beating the top four teams from the East while losing to the bottom two teams-South Carolina and Georgia) and 6-4 against the Western half of the conference. The Tide has had more trouble with the worse teams in the league than the best teams. If the Tide can get past Georgia (no mean feat considering the Bulldogs beat Alabama in their only meeting this year), they have a good chance to run past a struggling Kentucky and a struggling Tennessee. That would place them in the finals against either LSU, Arkansas (as we predict). Having to play four games in four days would be a hindrance for the Tide, but we like their chances.

SWAC:

At Birmingham-Jefferson Convention Center Arena
Birmingham, Ala.

FIRST ROUND

Thursday, March 9
Game 1: No. 1 Southern vs. No. 8 Alcorn State, 8:30 p.m.
Game 2: No. 4 Alabama State vs. No. 5 Jackson State, 11 a.m.
Game 3: No. 2 Alabama A&M vs. No. 7 Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 6 p.m.
Game 4: No. 3 Grambling vs. No. 6 Mississippi Valley State, 1:30 p.m.

SEMIFINALS

Friday, March 10
Game 5: Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner, 6 p.m.
Game 6: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner, 8:30 p.m.

CHAMPIONSHIP

Saturday, March 11
Game 7: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 8:30 p.m. (ESPNU)


Recap: Southern entered conference entered conference play in a similar circumstance as many of their league counterparts. The Jaguars had only two wins in their first 10 games. Yet, Southern found the ability to turn around their season and dominate the SWAC; winning the conference by four games over their nearest competition. In fact, the Jaguars were the only conference team that finished the regular season with more than 13 wins and one of only two SWAC teams to finish with a winning record. The entire conference had such difficulty in their non-conference schedule that all 10 league teams had just eight non-conference wins against Division 1 competition (Savannah State, Duquesne, Coppin State, Stephen F. Austin, Texas-San Antonio, Lipscomb, Louisiana Tech and South Alabama). Compare that to the 11 wins league teams had against non-division 1 competition and it paints a picture of a rough non-conference schedule for every SWAC team. The two last place teams (Texas Southern and Prairie View A&M) failed to make the conference tournament.

Favorite: Southern is the odds-on favorite to advance to the win the SWAC Tournament and advance to the NCAA Tournament. The Jaguars three conference losses all came away from home and all were by six points or less. Regular season champions have historically done well in the SWAC Tournament and it is anticipated that Southern will hold true to that form.

Darkhorse: Given that over half the conference teams have less than 10 wins (both inside the conference and overall); finding a darkhorse will not be easy. Alabama A&M enters the SWAC Tournament on a five game winning streak and the Bulldogs played Southern well during the regular season, losing twice to the Jaguars by seven and four points. Our choice is the Alabama State Hornets as the darkhorse from the SWAC. The Hornets own three of the eight non-conference wins from the league and were one of three conference teams to upend Southern. Alabama State may be the one SWAC team that played Southern the toughest this season, losing at Southern in overtime and beating the Jaguars at home by 4. If the Hornets are able to get by Jackson State in the quarterfinals, they have a good shot at upsetting Southern in the conference semifinals.

WAC:

At Lawlor Events Center
Reno, Nev.

QUARTERFINALS

Thursday, March 9
Game 1: No. 3 Louisiana Tech vs. No. 6 Boise State, 3 p.m.
Game 2: No. 2 Utah State vs. No. 7 San Jose State, 5:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 1 Nevada vs. No. 8 Idaho, 9 p.m.
Game 4: No. 4 Hawaii vs. No. 5 New Mexico State, 11:30 p.m.

SEMIFINALS

Friday, March 10
Game 5: Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner, 9 p.m.
Game 6: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner, 11:30 p.m.

CHAMPIONSHIP

Saturday, March 12
Game 7: Semifinal winners, 9 p.m. (ESPN2)

Recap: Nevada won their third straight conference title after struggling to start conference play. Nevada started the regular season and ranked in the top 25 after wins against UNLV, Kansas, Pacific and Georgia. The Wolf Pack lost four of their next 7 games to fall to 3-3 in conference and out of the top 25. The Wolf Pack regained their composure to win their last eleven games and outlast Utah State and Louisiana Tech for the WAC title. Louisiana Tech started the WAC season strong, posting a 7-1 record the first half of the conference campaign. The Bulldogs were unable to carry that momentum into the second half of conference play after losing three of four games (twice to Nevada and once at home to Utah State). Utah State had a chance to win the regular season title with a win at home against Nevada on February 25th. The Aggies lost that game to finish in a tie for second place in the conference. Utah State was undone by two losses to new WAC member New Mexico State. Last place team Idaho would not have made the conference tournament, after finishing the conference season 1-15, were it not for Fresno State being ruled ineligible for the WAC Tournament for NCAA sanctions.

Favorite: Nevada is the hottest team in the WAC and the Wolf Pack host the tournament for the second straight season. Nevada enters the conference tournament on an eleven game winning streak (the Wolf Pack have not lost since January 23 to Utah State). Nevada has scored conference wins at Utah State, at Louisiana Tech and at home against Akron and Louisiana Tech. The Wolf Pack must avoid last season's disappointment when the Wolf Pack were upset at home in the conference quarterfinals by Boise State.

Darkhorse: While Nevada enters the conference tournament as the hottest team in the league, there are at least two teams playing nearly as well as the Wolf Pack. Hawaii has won seven of their last nine games, including three games away from home (where the Rainbows have historically had difficulty). The Rainbows also own wins against Nevada and Utah State (albeit at home, where Hawaii has always been tough to beat). The Rainbows quarterfinal opponent is New Mexico State, winners of six of their last seven games. The Aggies own wins against Utah State at home and at Pacific during their stretch run. Despite starting the season 7-10, New Mexico State found a way to turn around their level of play and currently sit at 15-13, guaranteed of a winning record in their inaugural season in the WAC. New Mexico State faces the task of having to defeat Hawaii in the first round and then play Nevada on their own home court in the semifinals. Another possible candidate for a darkhorse is Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs have won four of their last five games, including wins at Southern Illinois and Hawaii (both traditionally tough places to find victories). Louisiana Tech will face a Boise State squad they swept this season (although both games were close contests). Our pick is Utah State. While the Aggies certainly do not enter the conference tournament as a lower seed, they are an underdog to win on Nevada's home floor. Utah State already won at Nevada earlier this season and the Aggies face a good draw (having to beat 6-24 San Jose State and either Boise State or Louisiana Tech, two teams Utah State was undefeated against this season). We like Nevada to continue their winning streak, but finding their way to a conference tournament title will be a greater challenge than many think.